Oh yes, Loving it...
..."Nothing clouds the thinking of a person more than hating a stock"
One hate the stock and leave it, one loves it and see it up and down and do not trade it despite being a high risk vehicle. I double and triple in xoma thrice!!! and hold the position cause: I believe in bpi. A great lesson.
Now, I indeed doubt bpi, or at least rBPi21 aka Neuprex, maybe the changes to the original molecule makes it so incomplete that it does not work the same, remember Neuprex is about half the natural molecule, maybe is even better for ANCA to find it, anyway for ANCA maybe the best avoidance is fully confront it with a massive dose, same as in penicillin allergy, do not try this, it is not advice.
Could xoma's tinkering with the molecule altered it to become ineffective?
Could meningococcus single, as opposed to regular gram negative complex lps chains, makes neuprex work less, all would it work less in the other g-negatives complex chains? I do not think so, but it needs to be proven.
What about Mycoprex? is even more tinkering, will it work?
Oh, yadda, baboons, in vitro, yadda, allergan, bax, yadda...
Bluegreen, You do not have a single piece of evidence to claim Neuprex works in any human clinical model, neither does xoma. Always protected in a cloud of ????
My only good judgement was to have no more than 5% of my money in xoma, I loved it, but my doubts were healthy (same objective doubts for any FDA non approved biotech company, nothing perxomal).
That many long followers, Tharos, TexasDude, Opalapril, cacaito and the likes are now doubtful, more or less about xoma's prospects, and especially about the antishareholder behavior of the company, and the dilution on the way to 100 million shares, and failed trauma trial, and failed attempt at FDA, and only data for the financiers, does it means any here hates xoma?
No, it is just healthy doubts.
Just because you think hu1124 is the only drug that will take the psoriasis market, and the transplant market, and the antiinflammatory market by storm, and I have a reasonable appraisal of Bgen, Lgnd, Medi, Idec, Pdli, Amgn, Imnx and 30 others after those markets, many of them with already similar drugs out (Embrel, Rituxan, interferons, sicrolimus,tacrolimus,targretin, panretin, ontak, and many combinations) does it means I hate xoma? It clearly means you are clouded with the worse thing can't happen with a stock, YOU love it.
Psoriasis is a $2 to $3 billion market in the world, be happy if xoma/DNA could take $200M at peak sales 5 years after initial marketing, that is year 2007, with a lot of work to get it out on 2002.
Allergan/xoma recycling news about eye indications? they already got $10M for that, how much now with the recycling news: ZERO. Put it in your calculations. Oh yeah, fungi and protozoa are included now, go ask your favorite ophtalmology when was the last time he treated a fungi in the eye, and ask him/her when was the last time he saw a protozoa in the eye. I have seen it both, only problem is the sugarcane cutters in the caribean can not pay for Motrin. There is a lot of Onchocerchiasis in Africa, one could see the bug walking in the eye, tell them to pay $100 for one dose. And for the regular infections in the eyes, there is a big competitor out there, cheap and efficient, Alrex and Lotemax combined with any antibiotic, and soon in a year or so the specific L-Tobra combination will be out.
Long ago, I said bpi/Allergan could become a $100M boutique drug WORLDWIDE, when? year 2010?
If one is a long term investor in something like xoma and pay current $4, to wait for several years, well why bother, go with less risk in 1000 other stocks.
Bax is a good indication?, on yes, I bought more xoma when the bax guy said he expected $500M a year from bpi sales, and just one month after I got the FDA gift and a 50% loss.
Bax is indeed reliable, they could not even figure out how to get this one throug.
How cheap can xoma produce bpi/allergan drug? Most treatment for eye infections are less than $20 dollars, many are less than $10, FULL course not just the dose,
Can xoma match those prices with rbpi21, I doubt it, it is a complex molecule, a large peptide, all are very expensive to make. of course, it could be the last resort, or the only one in certain complex eye surgical cases, and price it accordingly, and that will be 1% to 2% of the current eye infections market at best.
Neuprex for cystic fibrosis, well, not even DNA has taken this one, and they have the best drug availabl, TOBI is taken the market, and now TOBI is going for the prevention part of it, the left over will be bpi, when? 2008? 2010?, there are not even in phase I that I know, and they need to pay for the inhale techniques, add some $50M sometime in 2010? peak market.
2010? how many millions of shares? 200 to 500 millions by that time? Peak your number.
And the whole rest of the technology is not worth to talk about, gelonin, HE, what is that?, Ing? laughable Thaumatin?
Neuprex antiinflammatory? antitumor? anticancer? antiatherosclerosis/ antichlamydia in heart? all this are ideas for the future, close to NIL evidence.
Now give the due diligence to a new investor, improved it if you want, get the best outcome possible, and crown it with the FDA gag me, no, it was the pr review editor gag me, oh by the way the nasty-child for breakfast FDA rejected me, will he buy this stock?
Will he love this one? NO |
