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To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (2157)	6/2/2000 12:31:00 PM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 13572

The danger here is that the recent drop in the stock market could be enough for a slowing growth rate to actually turn into negative growth, or recession. This is especially true since the total amount of both personal and corporate debt is each at an all-time high. Looking out, a recession is likely as a slowing economy causes lower stock prices, which causes the economy to contract further, which causes even lower stock prices, and so on. Let's see how far this rally goes.

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (2157)	6/2/2000 12:46:00 PM
From: DOUG H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13572

Do you really think the FED intends to tank the economy with continuing rate hikes? Betty, the problem with interest rate increases is that the effect is only felt much later. some say 6 months. To give you an example, I've been mulling the option of building a new store for the last year. The problem I've had is that we are so late in this business cycle the price of commercial land reflects retail sales for the last 5 yrs. With the Fed looking to slow the economy (IOW) lay-offs, I'm not comfortable signing a 20 yr lease whose value is based on the last 5 yrs sales. The price of $$ has gone up 1.5% as well and on 1 million building costs that's an addditional $11,000 annual interest costs. Put it all in the hopper and what do you get? 1 million worth of construcion/equiptment that won't get bought and 40 jobs that wont be created. I saw the frenzy in late 80's met with BK's (and I don't mean Burger Kings) in the early 90's. 20yr leases w/ personal gaurantees and 15 yr loans are like smelling salts! <gg>