Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RocketMan who wrote (37575)	6/2/2000 10:57:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 42523

RM, as to Japan, more on that at a later date...remind me please. re. households being net sellers , i saw the requisite statistics in an NTRS article late last year. i'll see if i can dig it up in their archives. you say you don't recall so many people ever being in the market, but i do. the last time was in the late 60's/early '70's, also at the tail end of a secular bull market. many people saw their nest-egg disappear in the rout that followed, and 9 of the 10 largest mutual funds were not in existence anymore 5 years later. we really don't know for sure when the chickens will come home to roost, it could take a while still...i admit that. however, in terms of all the traditional yardsticks, the US stock market bubble is by far the biggest of all time. this brings me back to Japan...when the Nikkei first crossed 35,000 i had a very long discussion with a trader who concentrated on the Japanese market back then. like we now, and btw. most professional money managers out there, he acknowledged that the market was probably a bubble, but then went on to argue why it was 'different' than other bubbles that went before it. for three more months he looked like a genius. (i remember very well, the high p/e's were called irrelevant due to different accounting methods, and the main argument always was "where else will all that money from Japanese savers go?".). i argued that it didn't really matter if the bubble had another year of expansion left in it or not...as it would wind up at much lower levels ultimately. the point is, this bubble is bigger, especially on the Nasdaq. why would anyone with a shred of sanity want to buy into it? believe me, the boomers guarantee nothing...should the economy ever begin to stall and the savings rate begin to move up, the bubble is history.