I see the problem here. I know all about you, and you know very little about me.
Let me start over.
We'll start here:
Message 13812897
Price moves are price moves. They don't break down into "unreal price moves" and "real price moves". Some occur on higher than average volume, some occur on average volume, and some occur on lighter than average volume. Each is different, each says a different thing. Most people don't understand the difference. If you think you do, then back it up with some facts, or shut up and move along. I called the Nasdaq bottom within a day and 100 points. I went long. I am making money. Anyone who read my call, in real time, on this site, got in at the bottom. That's a stone cold fact, and your name calling can't erase a fact. You can call me part of the "stoopid buy the dip crowd" if you want to, but I didn't buy the three dips that came before this one. That's because I called the low quite a while back. I also called the top in March. I did all this using technical analysis.
I actually have real money in the market. I don't believe you are stupid enough to average up on a losing short position. I think you are blowing smoke when you say you are shorting more, whatever it is you claim to be shorting. You imply that you are trading options. If you are, I will surely take your money away from you at some point in the future. The reason is because I am a short term trader and I am good.
If you want to look at this like I am a know-it-all or a smartass, that is certainly your right. However, I don't post on Silicon Investor to see what I type in print. I do it in this case to try and help the less experienced traders that might actually read your absurd market calls and do the same thing you are doing. Anyone who is trying to play the market like you are and does not understand TA is doomed. You can't trade short term on fundamental analysis. At some point, assuming that you actually have money in the market, you will find this out. All rookies do. At the point where you realize that calculating a potential loss is more important than calculating the potential profit on a trade, you will be on your way. I hope you find someone that will help you out at that point, because it won't be me or many of the other pros on this site.
Assuming that you do have a rudimentary understanding of TA, which is a stretch, and assuming that you are using volume as a filter, which is apparent from your post, I could ask you once again to make some sort of rational statement about your perceived correlation between the recent move up and the overall volume on the NASDAQ. You can't, because what you wrote is nonsense. Anyone who read that post and acted on it is now wishing they had not, and on Monday morning they will feel worse than they do now. Your choice at that point will be to average up again, take a bigger paper loss, or cover and take a hit.
Those three alternatives are not part of the way I trade stocks or options.
Of course, the other explanation is that you are not actually trading in real life, and you are simply blowing smoke. Letting off steam because your paper short is going the wrong way. I hate to have to tell you this, but anyone with real money in the market can see through a paper trader pretty easily.
"Shorting the NASDAQ till [your] eyeballs pop out of [your] skull" is a pretty strong statement. It suggests that you are averaging up. I'd be interested in knowing how exactly you are shorting...an index, a hedge fund, a single equity, whatever. What option(s) do you own, at what price, what strike, what expiration? If you feel the need to yap about shorting till your eyeballs pop out, at least tell these less experienced people what you are shorting and when. Are you short CSCO? If you are, and you didn't cover below 51, then you screwed up, pal. You have a 15 point retracement from that bottom, and you screwed up big time. If (if) it breaks below 46 3/4 and you don't cover, then you screwed up again. If you shorted at the bottom, then you are a moron. If you are short long term, and you shorted above 66, I'll give you credit for a good entry point. But you left a few bucks on the table last week, and this year, bucks will not be as easy to get as last year. Of course, if you are paper trading, then none of your lame meandering about volume and "manipulation" means anything to people with real money in the market.
Next:
Message 13818828
Your reply to my question is BS. The question is: you are short CSCO. Where? Where are you wrong? Where does CSCO go before you come out publicly and say you just got a margin call and you sold at a loss, or you covered for a loss, or whatever it is that you will do if you are wrong. You might be wrong. It happens. What is your pain threshold? If you're paper trading, then you are in Wonderland. Tell me if you are real or blowing smoke. You're in a rather heated discussion here with a professional trader, and you can't get away with blowing smoke at me. What happens if your trade goes wrong, cowboy?
Next:
Message 13823339
It does not matter if you believe it or not; the truth is that your 'volume observation' is absurd. You don't understand how the market makers work. I do. Not because I am a genius, just because I studied it. I don't have the need or the desire to explain to anyone why you are wrong. All anyone needs to know is that you are. If they read your comments about volume and think "This is wrong", then they will be better at timing the market. If you are not trying to time this market for entry and exit points, then just tell me where you shorted and move along to some other thread or something. You can cover your short when CSCO splits 2/1 next spring, you jackass.
Your comment about TA is also telling. Saying that TA is opinion and conjecture is like saying that cooking food is opinion and conjecture. It depends on the cook, you fool. If you don't understand Technical Analysis, that's fine. Lots of people don't. If you don't believe it works, that's fine, lots of people don't. I know that the kind of Technical Analysis that I do works. I know it works because I make money. I can prove it. I already have proved it, to many people. Your problem is that you are not one of the people that I am willing to share what I do with. The reason for that is that you have a bad habit of spewing phlegm in public places, and then picking fights when someone calls your bluff. That is also fine with me, because the ordinary people on this thread can easily see who is telling the truth and who is confused. They are the ones that need to read this exchange between us.
Finally, calling me a 'maroon' is vulgar and I find it personally offensive. I would sincerely ask you to have that comment deleted from the site. If your rudeness continues, I'll ask the Administrator of the site to have you removed. Spit your tobacco in your own living room, not mine, Zippy.
Thanks,
eom |
