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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (24080)	6/3/2000 3:19:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Yeah, I just re-read my post and it sounds more bullish than what I meant for it to be. I think we are grossly over irrational and that most stocks are ridiculous. Even the over sold DOW ones and especially most techs. I see a pullback coming and it could actually be a strong one, anything is possible but I am betting more on just 5% or so. Last week, some people on this thread were saying that the irrational exuberance was dead and I, among others here, told them they were wrong. Well 20-30% increases in bubble stocks and 16% on the NASDAQ in 4 days I think proves that irrational exuberance is alive and well. This will end badly but who knows when. Investor attitudes are changing to the bullish side again. There was a lot of pent up buying energy just waiting for any excuse to pull the trigger and they did so this week. This weekend's contrarian argument is going to be the side line money I keep reading about on other threads. Everyone is saying there is all this cash on the sidelines waiting to buy. I say hog wash!!!!!!!! If there is so much money, then how come they are having to sell DOW stocks to buy techs? Why is GE lagging and actually dropping during the rally along with other big Market cap stocks to buy smaller cap ones. Because there isn't enough cash and they are having to sell where they can get away with it to speculate that the returns will be greater in tech land. One bad report next week could catch these guys all leaning the wrong way and really reverse things hard. I would love to see that formation I guessed about. An island doji Monday followed by a bad morning report Tuesday and large black candle would be a beautiful site and could really put a damper on the irrational traders as they lose their dip money quickly. Will it happen? I doubt it since it is pure speculation on my part only. The Funds aren't done cooking the tape to make themselves look good yet. Once the mutual fund mailers go out, the real distribution can resume and we can go back to a sense of realitstic trding, until then, we are moer likely to fluff up to make things look good to J6P, to get prices higher to sell to the laggars so we can leave them holding the bag in July/August. I may join you in puts Monday afternoon but it is a tough call. I more than likely will do some sort of straddle, calls and puts, if it appears that things will stay volatile. As long as things don't go sideways, I think there is money to be made trading straddles so you dont lose if you guess wrong, you just let the swings either way, make you cash. That link I posted earlier about the 6% discount rate and the fact that we could be forming a right shoulder on a gigantic H&S could prove to be very interesting months down the road. Good Luck, Lee