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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dinesh who wrote (25782)	6/3/2000 11:42:00 PM
From: bozo1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

RE Interest rates and FOMC Dinesh I have a friend who is a member of the ATL Fed and I have frequently asked him what will happen with interest rates? He usually responds by talking about the color of the carpet or who won the last game, obviously ignoring the question as his oath requires him to do. However, he is not without providing direction by asking questions himself. For example, the leading economic indicators is a closely watched number (the last report on Wed had the LEI dropping .1 instead of an expected .1 increase) and he frequently refers to this statistic when I ask him about interest rates. In addition he indicates that the expectation is that it takes 6 months for the full effect of an interest rate change to be felt in the economy. I could not resist bugging him about the impact of the 50 BP move implemented in May and the potentially huge negative impact on an already slowed economy next Jan-Feb. (At least it is after election time so the new Pres can complain about the lousy job that Billie did!!) The Fed may have to actually be lowering rates by that time IMO At any rate, I honestly believe that the Fed is finished with rate increase (althoug it might be wishful thinking)based on the slowing numbers coming in...unemployment rising, housing starts down, auto sales down, wages rising less than expected, negative LEI numbers. This speaks well for a rising stock market through the summer, prehaps more than just a summer rally but a sustained drive back to the peaks of March. This is just my Humble opinion but I could not resist commenting on interest rates since I follow them closely Have a good one Kerry