To: puborectalis who wrote (100482 ) 6/3/2000 8:42:00 PM From: puborectalis Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 120523
Blodget's Bludgeoned Picks By Cintra Scott "BLODGET SPEAKS!" the Amazon.com (AMZN) message boards buzzed. Yes, the prolific Merrill Lynch Internet analyst spoke with journalists on Thursday evening and put out an Amazon note on Friday. Verdict: Blodget, who was made famous after slapping a $400 price target on Amazon, isn't getting quite as much respect as he used to. "Blockhead may have a following," one message read on Friday. "He may be right more than wrong. But I distrusted him from the first I heard from him." It hasn't been easy for any Internet analyst lately. But the biggest wig of them all has also been the easiest target. Blodget's high profile started with Amazon believers, but quickly spread to the general public. In 1999, Blodget was declared an All-Star analyst by The Wall Street Journal, ranked the No. 3 analyst by Institutional Investor and found to be the country's most widely read analyst by First Call/ Thomson Financial. The accolades go on and on. But in 2000, will he see similar rewards? Not unless some of his top picks reverse their downward rolls soon. On Friday, Blodget reiterated his top rating for Amazon shares (a near-term Buy/long-term Buy) and his $100 price objective. At the same time he reaffirmed his faith in Amazon, Blodget spoke openly about tough trading times ahead in the sector. That $100 target on Amazon was first published on Feb. 3, a day the stock opened for trading at $81.12. And since his February upgrade, Amazon stock has moved by more than $23 per share ? in the wrong direction. Now that the stock is trading at $57.88, a 73% surge sure would make investors money. But Blodget told journalists Thursday night that he wasn't counting on upside in the stock in the near future. In a sense, price targets are especially tough for a guy whose most famous one came true in just three weeks. He made his $400 per-share call on Dec. 16, 1998, when Amazon was trading at $242.75. And it hit (and surpassed) Blodget's magic mark on Jan. 6 (adjusted for the 3-for-1 stock split on Jan. 5). Some seem to expect Blodget to cast another stock spell and move the markets higher. But momentum is against him this time around. Speaking to journalists at a Merrill Lynch-hosted dinner Thursday night, Blodget explained that "Amazon will continue to be a controversial stock." But he quickly noted that America Online (AOL) used to be a controversial stock too. ("It was called a ponzi scheme," he said.) And now, it's profitable. The problem is that unlike AOL and Yahoo! (YHOO), Amazon isn't profitable no matter how you slice it. Without profits, you can't have reliable valuations, Blodget stated. "But we expect permanent profits next year," he added. And Blodget has had trouble with valuations for other unprofitable companies. He slapped a near-term Accumulate/long-term Buy on eToys (ETYS) stock on June 17, 1999, when it fetched $37.50. It's now worth $6.12. He initiated coverage of Priceline.com (PCLN) with a near-term Accumulate/long-term Buy on April 27, 1999 when it fetched $120.75. It's now at $46.50. He initiated Homestore.com (HOMS) with a near-term Accumulate/long-term Buy on Sept. 8, 1999, when it fetched $47.50. He then upgraded it on March 6 of this year to his top rating, when it fetched $67. It's now at $29.56. That's not a great track record. On eToys, Blodget said Thursday night that the stock had been trading at a premium (it peaked at $86 per share) and was now trading more in line with its online retailing peers. "It will need to raise more money," he added. He still calls eToys a good company ? "either stand-alone or as part of another company." So where are we with valuations? In Blodget's most recent quarterly handbook on e-commerce (published April 4, 2000), he wrote: "We agree that the leading pure-play Internet stocks are expensive, but think there are good reasons to own them anyway." A year ago, his first quarter handbook read: "The Internet stocks have always seemed absurdly expensive (and the valuations are indeed eye-popping), but for several reasons we believe they are more valuable than most people think." But Blodget's more recent comments are far more cautious. As he said of Amazon, it's not a momentum stock anymore. And without upward momentum, how should investors take his Buy ratings on AOL, Yahoo, eBay (EBAY) and the like? We say with more than a grain of salt ? until the next bull run. << MARKET TODAY ARCHIVE