SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: puborectalis who wrote (100482)6/3/2000 8:42:00 PM
From: puborectalis  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 120523
 
Blodget's Bludgeoned Picks
By Cintra Scott

"BLODGET SPEAKS!" the Amazon.com (AMZN) message boards buzzed.
Yes, the prolific Merrill Lynch Internet analyst spoke with journalists on Thursday
evening and put out an Amazon note on Friday. Verdict: Blodget, who was made
famous after slapping a $400 price target on Amazon, isn't getting quite as much
respect as he used to.

"Blockhead may have a following," one message read on Friday. "He may be
right more than wrong. But I distrusted him from the first I heard from him."

It hasn't been easy for any Internet analyst lately. But the biggest wig of them all
has also been the easiest target. Blodget's high profile started with Amazon believers, but quickly spread
to the general public. In 1999, Blodget was declared an All-Star analyst by The Wall Street Journal,
ranked the No. 3 analyst by Institutional Investor and found to be the country's most widely read analyst
by First Call/ Thomson Financial. The accolades go on and on.

But in 2000, will he see similar rewards? Not unless some of his top picks reverse their downward rolls
soon.

On Friday, Blodget reiterated his top rating for Amazon shares (a near-term Buy/long-term Buy) and his
$100 price objective. At the same time he reaffirmed his faith in Amazon, Blodget spoke openly about
tough trading times ahead in the sector.

That $100 target on Amazon was first published on Feb. 3, a day the stock opened for trading at $81.12.
And since his February upgrade, Amazon stock has moved by more than $23 per share ? in the wrong
direction. Now that the stock is trading at $57.88, a 73% surge sure would make investors money. But
Blodget told journalists Thursday night that he wasn't counting on upside in the stock in the near future.

In a sense, price targets are especially tough for a guy whose most famous one came true in just three
weeks. He made his $400 per-share call on Dec. 16, 1998, when Amazon was trading at $242.75. And it
hit (and surpassed) Blodget's magic mark on Jan. 6 (adjusted for the 3-for-1 stock split on Jan. 5). Some
seem to expect Blodget to cast another stock spell and move the markets higher. But momentum is
against him this time around.

Speaking to journalists at a Merrill Lynch-hosted dinner Thursday night, Blodget explained that "Amazon
will continue to be a controversial stock." But he quickly noted that America Online (AOL) used to be a
controversial stock too. ("It was called a ponzi scheme," he said.) And now, it's profitable. The problem is
that unlike AOL and Yahoo! (YHOO), Amazon isn't profitable no matter how you slice it. Without profits,
you can't have reliable valuations, Blodget stated. "But we expect permanent profits next year," he added.

And Blodget has had trouble with valuations for other unprofitable companies. He slapped a near-term
Accumulate/long-term Buy on eToys (ETYS) stock on June 17, 1999, when it fetched $37.50. It's now
worth $6.12. He initiated coverage of Priceline.com (PCLN) with a near-term Accumulate/long-term Buy
on April 27, 1999 when it fetched $120.75. It's now at $46.50.

He initiated Homestore.com (HOMS) with a near-term Accumulate/long-term Buy on Sept. 8, 1999,
when it fetched $47.50. He then upgraded it on March 6 of this year to his top rating, when it fetched $67.
It's now at $29.56. That's not a great track record.

On eToys, Blodget said Thursday night that the stock had been trading at a premium (it peaked at $86
per share) and was now trading more in line with its online retailing peers. "It will need to raise more
money," he added. He still calls eToys a good company ? "either stand-alone or as part of another
company."

So where are we with valuations? In Blodget's most recent quarterly handbook on e-commerce (published
April 4, 2000), he wrote: "We agree that the leading pure-play Internet stocks are expensive, but think
there are good reasons to own them anyway." A year ago, his first quarter handbook read: "The Internet
stocks have always seemed absurdly expensive (and the valuations are indeed eye-popping), but for
several reasons we believe they are more valuable than most people think."

But Blodget's more recent comments are far more cautious. As he said of Amazon, it's not a momentum
stock anymore. And without upward momentum, how should investors take his Buy ratings on AOL,
Yahoo, eBay (EBAY) and the like? We say with more than a grain of salt ? until the next bull run.

<< MARKET TODAY ARCHIVE



To: puborectalis who wrote (100482)6/3/2000 10:11:00 PM
From: puborectalis  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 120523
 
CAN YOU BELIEVE IT?....the Washington Post reports that there is a bill up for vote on Medicare payments to nurse anesthetists without an anesthesiologist need be present in the OR......before you know it Medicare will pay for charlatans, medicine men, voodoo doctors, and quacks!.....What is happening to our health care system?........specialists are no longer needed?...who do you want treating heart disease, cancer, and ulcers?...Are you listening America?