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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roebear who wrote (67562)	6/5/2000 10:01:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

Best of all worlds scenario coming to fruition for the OSX imho... NASDQ - can NOT and will NOT rally to any significant new highs with a continued rising rate environment and my bet is that we will have a continuing rising rate environment. We saw the OSX selling accelerated by the exit of momenteum money - finally the sector's top guns - SII BJS CAM WFT et al - came back to the buy range. I bought heavy - first time I've owned this many OSX names in a long time: BJS WFT CAM SII & 3 drillers ESV FLC PTEN; + PGO and smaller positions in a few others. The ONLY major downside threat on a fundamental basis is a total market meltdown based on strong inflationary data and a .50 bp hike in June. I think OPEC will slowly raise production - still not meeting the demand rise; keeping not just a floor under crude prices; but perhaps setting up a strong possibility of new highs in Crude. The best thing that can happen for the OSX is for the Fed to continue its "death by 1000 cuts" - a .25 bp hike now, another in Q4 after the election and more in early 2001. The NAZ should retrace this week and I still think we visit 2650 or so in the NAZ sooner, or later and if we do - the Oilpatch becomes the play of the market. Momenteum players will not just return to the Oilpatch - they'll come back bigger & stronger than before & they'll bring their friends & family... The Oilpatch is going to so surpass the other sectors in the market based on earnings growth visibility & valuations that it will finally become THE momenteum sector in Q3-4 imho. Once the drillers put in black & white - the dayrates in the GOM that they are starting to see here - they take off like rockets. I think the GOM leveraged drillers will be THE niche to play off of Q2 earnings. Once we see the Oil Majors & the Intergrateds start to participate as well - then; we go to new highs imho. PTEN - is THE play here....owning some TBDI isn't a bad move either. PTEN will take out a smaller player; or as I think; PTEN gets bought by NBR & it happens soon. The Street is so blatant sometimes - Dain Rauscher downgrades PTEN for not having enough deep drilling Rig exposure (simultaneous to the PR of them closing such a purchase - evidently not enough). Nothing like a raid & a shake out taking the stock down from $30-32 to near $20, generating some margin call - capitulation selling in a stock whose nearterm fundametnals and earnings upside couldn't be stronger !?!? - what a git.... the Street sometimes is nearly criminal in their bogus manipulations of retail investors .... SLB becoming the TOP PICK at DLJ is not to be ignored... The OSX is really posied for some nice earnings reporting here and we should see momenteum money flow in for the next two qtrs as the overal market will get nicked & bled out by continued Fed Hikes. I really like ESV here & on weakness along with FLC & PTEN as my favorite plays.