To: Mike Buckley who wrote (25817 ) 6/4/2000 12:14:00 PM From: Bruce Brown Respond to of 54805
If you wouldn't make me listen to Wagner, no premium would be required. <ggg> I would like to point you to an interesting concept in a recent post concerning the 'old economy/new economy' price to earnings ratios. This post was in response to the Bill Mann (TMFOtter) post which I referenced to you a couple of days ago and the Tom Gardner article.boards.fool.com The author is erothberg from the Fool and here is what he says:I believe the analysis in Otter's article is flawed for the simple reason that P/E, in new economy companies as compared to old economy companies is a flawed measure of value. The reason for this is that old economy companies have inflated earnings compared to new economy companies by virtue of their ability to amortize capital expenditures. In a new economy company the real capital expenditures are research and development. These are expenses immediately rather than amortized. If you amortize these expenses on a three to five year basis and add back 66% to 80% spent on these items to earnings, the P/Es begin to look much more reasonable. Moreover, there is an added tax benefit. Since the IRS allows R&D expenses to be deducted currently, the new economy companies will pay less taxes, thereby adding more cash to the bottom line for investors. Pretty compelling stuff to think about when evaluating a business model like that of a Siebel, a Cisco, an Intel, a Microsoft. If you follow the posts in 'threaded' mode, it's quite an interesting discussion about what valuations have become in comparison to 'traditional metric measures' and what an investor is to do. Regardless, using the Rule Maker criteria, business is running quite well at Intel, Cisco and Microsoft and has been on a consistent basis. Should we be surprised? <ggg> Not at all. We all know why we own Cisco or Intel and although we might question the current state of Microsoft - man what a business model. Whether you understand it from a gorilla gaming point of view or a evaluation of the business point of view - the two are parallel at this point. However, explain to the average Wall Street Joe that General Motors takes in 3 cents in profit for every dollar of sales and service. Three little pennies. Pathetic. Toss them in the air and they fall in the gutter. Do you all know what our mature gorillas took in profit for every dollar in the last quarter? Cisco - .22 cents Intel - .31 cents Microsoft - .42 cents (the highest ever!) Yet, how many gurus do we see come on CNBC and tout General Motors as an investment. Wouldn't you just like to shake them and say "Boys and girls, why would I want to own a company that makes .03 cents in profits on the dollar?". The P/E is what? 7.94? You mean I could own Intel, a company that has ten times the profits as GM with a P/E of 48.94? Or Microsoft, a company with profits 14 times that of GM with a P/E of 39.9? Hmmmmmmmm......let me get back to you on that GM recommendation. Don't call me, I'll call you. By the way, I drive a Honda. Okay. Time for some more wine.... BB P.S. Tekboy, think about a little online seminar this summer.