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Technology Stocks : PROGRAMMER'S PARADISE (PROG) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mad2 who wrote (2202)	6/4/2000 4:27:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2383

I think that there are a number of possible factors that can be exploited, if management is up to it. First, on a value basis, we are well under BV and at ridiculously low PSR. More than a buck in cash per share on hand is also an important factor. This company is valued at a total cap of $20 MM or so, with sales that are right now at around $240 MM and could increase to $280 MM next year. In general, PROG is better positioned to exploit the internet than the other competing entities, they have cash while many of the competitors are "teetering". They should be able to leverage their catalogue business to on-line business. More importantly, PROG has traditionally been able to bring in some $.10 to $.18 per quarter, the last two quarters' weakness, were "supposedly" due to the slow recovery in Europe from lock downs, these by now should be removed. The launch of the 2000 by MSFT should create a new bolus of demand for developers. Any increase in sales above about $55 MM per quarter should bring down the bottom line some 10% of these additional sales, thus if they get in, let say, $60 MM in this quarter (and I think they could push $60 MM), thatwill yield $.10/share or so. I do not think that the quarter just ended was much more than break even (the stock should have shown some life, if it was), but I expect the last two quarter to be much stronger (ever an optimist). Finally, if the i-nut craze resumes (and i expect it to), this company has at least $20 MM in I-net sales annually, and is thus valued at a PSR of 1 of the i-net business (fo and look what other I-net PSR is going for), the other $200 MM plus or so of sales are valued at nil. Zeev Zeev