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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gus who wrote (5247)	6/4/2000 4:35:00 PM
From: Ruffian	Respond to of 34857

Damn, you must stay up late making up or spin this stuff, i admire you efforts, gussy-boy. hope you are right for Your-Sake! lol......and all the other Kool-Aid followers........ this might have more potential than IDC> biz.yahoo.com just trying to help. <gg>

To: Gus who wrote (5247)	6/4/2000 8:33:00 PM
From: ehopper	Respond to of 34857

By the way Cambridge Software Radio needed alot of hand holding by Ericsson and Nokia to get where they are now (like Socket Communications). The Bluetooth community is a rare one where the original SIG members actually help debug the competitions product (e.g. in Unplug fest) because the ultimate goal is for Bluetooth to proliferate every device....too bad all wireless areas do not take this approach. ed.

To: Gus who wrote (5247)	6/4/2000 9:49:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34857

Gus, <...For instance, who's going to get crunched during times of component shortages? The de facto global standard and its upgrade path like GSM/TDMA/GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA/4G or the niche standard like CDMAOne/1xRTT/3xRTT/CDMA2000?> You are quite right that Nokia will have the money to pay what they like for components. But, the one that gets crunched in any shortage situation is the one which is less efficient and costs more per bit or per yak. That means the components in short supply will go to the system which makes most economic use of those components. That is NOT analog phones. Service Providers can give most bang for the buck using CDMA, not GSM or GPRS. A subscriber adds up their total cost and the balance that against the service they get. A sluggish GPRS system or spectrum inefficient GSM system is not the optimum use for a component. That means component shortages favour CDMA systems. NOT the company with the most money. I'd say Samsung is probably the greatest beneficiary of component shortages - just guessing. They seem to have very popular designs, so can get good margins, they have the cash flow to buy and they can give more bang for the buck [for that expensive component in short supply]. It's a bit like the $36bn for spectrum. That does NOT mean innovation slows or service providers won't have money left over to build a network [what an insane thing for people are paid public money to say - as though Vodafone would bid their way to bankruptcy in such an obvious way]. The high cost and shortage puts a premium on innovation and spectral efficiency. That means no GSM. That means NO GPRS will darken the 3G spectrum. It means CDMA will be installed, and soon. Component shortages and resultant high prices will mean CDMA is used to run that component, not some crusty, old, inefficient, dog of an air-interface. Yes, Nokia can afford the components. But they will NOT be putting them in old analogue phones. They'll put them in the highest margin phones. Which are probably their top GSM models right now. But they'll be competing with Samsung and others who can get a lot more byte-bang using that same component. So unless Nokia has some nice coloured face-plate, melody, WAP access or something else subscriber value more than cheap yakking and WWeb access on 1XRTT or HDR, then Nokia is in trouble. Shortages favour efficiency, not dinosaurs [even if they do have lots of money at the moment]. Maurice