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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: M. Charles Swope who wrote (73248)	6/4/2000 10:38:00 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Respond to of 152472

Some intuition, but I posted on this board exactly where the covering would begin - 60. Only a fool would short qcom right now. The rally of the nasdung last week was nothing short of breathtaking, and the latecomers are gonna want some of the action. Any excuse works - China, Europe, whatever. Those 4 weeks when people started to think about valuations and risk - kiss them goodbye. The fed is trying to avoid market meltdown by periodically opening up the money supply - like stopping a car by repeatedly pumping the brakes instead of just slamming and holding them down. Interest rates, like crude oil, are just extra weight, its the M3 that's the revving the engine, and the airdrops have really picked up again. Once this little round of injection is over, we'll get another slowdown in the airdrops and we retest our lows in the 'daq. This time, however, the DOW goes with it. No higher highs. When things are looking bleak again, the market will narrowly avert a free fall by another injection - smaller than the last, of course, but AG may just pull off the biggest economic miracle in modern times. He knows it's a bubble - he knew that in 1998 - the only thing thats really changed is that slower growth is now unavoidable, and he came to the realization that all these productivity gains he once believed in are somewhat suspect. He just needs to bring the markets down slowly before the threat of recession/stagflation is clear. Because when this little slowing of the economy that everybody is rejoicing about begins to cut into company profits - and I'm hearing that its doing that right now in certain sectors - then stuff that's priced for perfection starts plummeting. I think this is a noble effort on AG's part - and thus far the execution is going ok. The monkey in the wrench however, is the weakening of the usd. He's hoping that the surge in the equity markets will continue to attract foreign money - otherwise, a falling dollar will be very, very difficult to combat. The possible rate hike of the ECB doesn't help this cause, and it may begin to unravel the euro carry trade. And I'm not going to bring gold into this, because you'll think I'm out of my mind.