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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Demosthenes who wrote (14203)	6/4/2000 10:14:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

So Tell Me, Where is the Bear? <<He questioned the economic numbers of Friday as part of a trend going forward given contradicting data points. Note also the muted bond market to those numbers as Brinker pointed out.>> Today said as much again today. Is there any historical instances where data suggesting economic slowing such as what came out on Friday turned out to be flat wrong? What interests me about Bob's call is that the indexes have not moved that significantly since January so I suspect most investors are generally where they were in mid-Janauary or so at least as measured by the indexes. All our portfolios may have taken hits but not bear market hits with high quality companies. So far those that have taken Bob's advice have missed out on the extreme volatility...there is something to be said for that...but have tax liabilities with personal money. Is there a bear market? I would say not as measured by the indexes. At least not yet. Have the markets been volatile? No doubt. All in all, as of now, the indexes have not moved all that much since the beginning of the year. So the first thing I question is that there is a bear market at all. To date I am not convinced. Actually, I have wavered on this point throughout the year especially when the markets took heavy hits in March. Obviously there has been an extreme correction in the Nasdaq but that is from its high not from the beginning of the year. The second thing I question are the reports that have just come out. Are they for real? One month does not signify a trend but perhaps it is the beginning of a slowdown. Is the data suspect? They certainly could be but all the reports are consistent with each other for the most part pointing in the same direction. Will this put the Federal Reserve on hold? Seems to me it will at least for this month. The Federal Reserve may be unsure itself and may not hike rates at the June meeting. One of the strongest arguments for the bear were consistently rising interest rates. The rate hikes may have ended, the rate hikes may be ending, the rate hikes may continue...but there seems to be a lessor chance of the severe rate hikes analysts have been talking about. As of now I am still waiting for the bear to come out of hibernation. Most investors confuse volatility and bearishness. Volatility is neither bullish or bearish it is just there. Volatility may indicate a bear coming but I am still waiting. The popular view is accept Bob's recommendation. I have taken his advice and I am defensive within my own parameters but I have heard little talk on this board about what has really happened. Bear this, Bear that, Bear over here, Bear over there...and the numbers have not supported the bearish case just yet. Inflation, there has been what I would call a whiff if you inhale deeply... Enough for now...