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To: LLCF who wrote (37900)6/5/2000 1:40:00 PM
From: IceShark  Respond to of 42523
 
And one point I was raising is how do you define the overlapping causes of death, or continued life? You can only make educated guesses. Such as did the child live longer due to improved sanitary conditions, which also improved expectancy all along the age range, or a vaccine which only really helps a group of children make it through that risk factor which has little risk to the older surviving population?

This is all sort of moot anyway for predicting the future because we are running up against the wall unless science can eliminate this pesky problem of aging. I'm not so sure history by itself is of significant help in predicting resolution of this problem.