To: Tony Viola who wrote (104029 ) 6/5/2000 8:02:00 PM From: bigja Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
Tony, Joe Osha continues to be an AMD fan based on his report today. Wasn't it Osha who stated INTC was dead money when was trading in the $80's? Investment Highlights: o As expected, AMD officially rolled out both versions of its Athlon processor with on-chip memory late yesterday. o The addition of on-chip L2 cache should give AMD substantial additional headroom to boost product performance going forward. o We are reiterating our intermediate-term Accumulate and long-term Buy ratings - our 12-18 price objective is $120. Fundamental Highlights: o AMD has chosen to price its new products closely in line with comparable Intel products - evidently the company feels no need to compete on the basis of price any more. o There are still substantial challenges that face AMD. In particular, we're going to be monitoring the transition from K62 to Duron very closely. o We believe the company deserves enormous credit for getting as far as it has, however. In our opinion, the Athlon will be superior to anything Intel is able to field until the latter rolls out Willamette in the second half of this year. AMD rolls new versions of Athlon . . . As expected, AMD officially rolled out both versions of its Athlon processor with on-chip memory late yesterday. The higher-end version of the product, which had been code-named Thunderbird, is being introduced simply as the "new Athlon". The lower-performance version, which is targeted at Intel's Celeron, has been branded as Duron. Plenty of performance headroom from here... The addition of on-chip L2 cache should give AMD substantial additional headroom to boost product performance going forward. We note that although the new Athlon was introduced in speeds of only up to 1 gigahertz, additional faster products should be showing up over the next few quarters. The same should be true of Duron, which was introduced at speeds up to 700 megahertz. The real advantage that AMD can begin to exploit here should be better yields - although Intel has struggled to boost Coppermine to gigahertz speed, AMD should be able to see that performance from the new version of Athlon more easily. Pricing very similar to Intel It's also interesting to note that AMD has not chosen to underprice Intel with its latest product introductions. The announced prices for the new Athlon are closely in line - within a few dollars, in most cases - with the newly released prices for Intel's Coppermine parts. Duron prices compare with listed Celeron prices similarly. Evidently AMD has decided that its product lineup is now competitive enough to avoid underpricing Intel in order to see products. Ramping down K62 will be a challenge AMD faces several challenges at this point. As we've noted before, manufacturing starts of the older version of Athlon have already been stopped. Although that should make for a rapid transition to the newer products, it also means that any problems with manufacturing the newer parts will hit results hard. We also note that with Intel turning up the heat on Celeron, AMD likely will need to transition from K62 to Duron rapidly - the competitiveness of K62 is beginning to erode rapidly. AMD has done a great job until now, though All that being said, though, AMD has done a superb job of getting to this point. The Athlon should open up a technology lead for AMD over Intel that the latter company will not really be able to close until it introduces Willamette later in the year. We reiterate our intermediate-term Accumulate and long-term Buy ratings for AMD - our 12-18 month price objective is $120.