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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (114575)6/6/2000 12:31:00 PM
From: niceguy767  Respond to of 1572776
 
Jim:

Thanks...Sounds bang on to me as I arrived at 2.0 million Athy prelim estimate last night for Q2 (always subject to upward revision at a later date!)using a similar approach!



To: Jim McMannis who wrote (114575)6/6/2000 12:33:00 PM
From: chic_hearne  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1572776
 
Re: 136,500*4.3 (weeks/mo)= 586,950 good chips/mo.

Jim,

Let's say 1.5 million chips from Dresden in Q3. Just a guess as what the ramp would look like:

July 400,000
August 500,000
September 600,000 (using your number here)

I think these numbers are pretty realistic. To do 3.6 million Athlons in Q3, this has to be close to the Dresden output.

The financials: biz.yahoo.com

$319 for 750 Mhz
$990 for 1 Ghz

1,500,000 x $319 = $487,500,000
1,500,000 x $990 = $1,485,000,000

For Q3, Dresden revenue will be somewhere between these 2 numbers.

Anyone want to put up some WAG's of what this means to AMD's top and bottom lines? Any guesses what the blended ASP would be from Dresden? When selling to OEM's, do they get these prices?

chic



To: Jim McMannis who wrote (114575)6/6/2000 4:31:00 PM
From: Joe NYC  Respond to of 1572776
 
Jim,

My only argument is that if we have current wpw at 1,000, we will see your 586,950 Thunderbirds / month in 3 months.

But as far as current inventory is concerned, AMD should have about 500,000 Dresden Athlons in stock, based on wafer starts from January to March.

Dresden production for the month of June should be based on 600 wafer starts per week that Jerry announced during Q1 CC, which should be around 350,000

Joe


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