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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JGoren who wrote (11646)	6/6/2000 2:56:00 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

Near term visibility for growth in QCOM is unreal. Think about the near term trends. - conversion from cdmaOne to 1X MC CDMA in the US, Japan, and Korea. Every cell phone will be replaced in those markets over the next few years. This more than offsets any ridiculous concept that growth in existing CDMA markets is getting mature. Not only will QCOM capitalize on the sale of chips to handset makers, but QCOM now has the unusual opportunity of selling ASICs to infrastructure providers such as LU, NT, Samsung, ERICY, Hitachi, and others. NOK will have to come to terms very soon also. The biggest concern that many people have about QCOM is that 3G CDMA is 3 years away. I think this misconception will be blown apart when QCOM and NOK announce a ASIC deal.

To: JGoren who wrote (11646)	6/6/2000 3:39:00 PM
From: mmeggs	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13582

But the amount Qualcomm would collect will differ radically from one flavour of CDMA to the next, analysts said. For example, some analysts estimate Qualcomm would rake in as much as five percent of the cost of every handset sold that is compatible with its homegrown next generation standard, CDMA2000. But an alternative standard, W-CDMA, has been developed by a slew of telecoms firms, from Sweden's Ericsson <LMEb.ST> and Finland's Nokia <NOK.N>, to U.S.-based Lucent Technologies <LU.N> and France's Alcatel <CGEP.PA> -- all of which claim a share of the patent rights. Even though Qualcomm claims ownership of the core technology of W-CDMA, analysts said cross-licensing of patents would whittle away its revenues to a fraction of what it would earn from CDMA2000. This is the first time I've heard this, and in such strong language. ("Fraction" in particular) While I suspect that this is just more FUD, does anyone have an educated opinion on whether the need for Q to cross-license makes for net lower royalty revenue?

To: JGoren who wrote (11646)	6/6/2000 3:56:00 PM
From: Kayaker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

But an alternative standard, W-CDMA, has been developed by a slew of telecoms firms, from Sweden's Ericsson <LMEb.ST> and Finland's Nokia <NOK.N>, to U.S.-based Lucent Technologies <LU.N> and France's Alcatel <CGEP.PA> -- all of which claim a share of the patent rights. The list of companies claiming IPR for DS CDMA seems to get longer every day. So far, I have: QCOM Ericsson Nokia Lucent Alcatel NTT DoCoMo IDC ...and I wouldn't be surprised if I've missed a few. I know QCOM will claim the majority and most critical IPRs, but I wish I had a better understanding of how this is likely to play out. Is the expectation that all the other IPRs added together will total such a small percentage that QCOM will still get 4-5%? Is it not a possibility that all the other IPR claims will whittle QCOM's IPR down significantly? Is this not their plan? Do we really know the answer to this or are we hoping/guessing? And I still have no clue how the DS CDMA IPR disputes are likely to be resolved. The Europeans (especially NOK) seem hell-bent on depriving QCOM of significant IPR revenue, so I don't see the path to a solution. It doesn't seem that it would be in anyone's interests to have this tied up in the courts for years. So how will it play out? Will they all blink?