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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (43607)	6/6/2000 10:38:00 PM
From: TimF	Respond to of 93625

ut I doubt that you will ever find a post of mine where I said that "RMBS" is dead, dead, dead. But if RDRAM is dead, dead, dead, then sooner or later RMBS will be as well or close enough (the company might still exist and might start trying to make other ways but there stock would fall off a cliff). Personally I think DDRDRAM will will be a better solution for PCs then RDRAM, but I don't think RDRAM is "dead, dead, dead." Tim

To: Bilow who wrote (43607)	6/12/2000 2:59:00 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi all; Re RDRAM being dead, dead, dead... At this year's Platform 2000, Transmeta's head guy gave a talk on memory in mobile platforms. He prefaced his talk with a discussion of why RDRAM is dead as a technology. I suppose that this was so that he didn't have to bother with it in the rest of the talk. So if you want to hear a (disembodied) voice saying pretty much the same things I've been saying re RDRAM and next year's technology, here is your chance: Memory Solutions for Mobile Platforms Bill Gervasi Technology Analyst, Transmeta Corp. Chairman, JEDEC Memory Timing 03:30 Rambus PostMortem Postmortem on a memory technology that is in the process of dying quite noisely. 06:00 Platform 99 Projections Here's what I said last September would be the roadmap moving forward. (Projections as of 07/99) What I anticipated was that segement 1 and segment 2 of the PC marketplace would be split between Rambus and DDR moving forward. I anticipated that Intel would be successful in capturing this segment here, and then about six months later would be moving that success into a lower priced segment of the PC market space. Other factors were a transition from a single data rate 167MHz for graphics, and making a quick transition to a x16 DDR SDRAM, and then eventually, about six months to a year later, the graphics guys would cost reduce, going to the more price sensitive market with a x32 DDR SDRAM. That was my vision in September of 1999. I've updated these projections. Certainly the biggest factor is that I no longer see Rambus moving beyond the high end of the PC Segment 2 space. All the noise on the rail is that it is essentially dead, and that resources are already being pulled from this. What we said we'd see was some PC100, maybe PC133 happening in Segment 2, but it looks like a pretty quick transition to DDR instead of Rambus is more likely. 11:37 Market Factors Rambus appears to be dead... 16:00 Rambus Mistakes Performance < PC100 Systems too costly Answered 1994 pin count problem, but 100PQFP gave way to 400 BGA * Required grounds eliminated advantage RAC does not shrink Die penalties increase with shrinks Memory guys don't know how to shrink big analog things. Power centered in one chip at a time 19:00 DDR Beat Out Rambus* DIMM cost -$10 PCB cost -15% Latency -27% Peak BW +33% Power -40% silicontech.com As usual, it is likely that I mistyped or misheard some of the above dialog. So go to the original source and hear it yourself. -- Carl