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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (67766)	6/7/2000 8:58:00 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

JimL, canaries in a coal mine: When I came on this board 2 years ago, and all was gloom and doom, I stated my exit strategy for this sector. I needed to hear three canaries chirping to completely head for the exits. 1. Analysts love the stocks. 2. Insiders are bailing. 3. Grandma is duped into thinking these are growth stocks. So far, I've got two canaries chirping. If you don't think insiders selling in this sector is meaningful, then I humbly suggest you take a look at what happened prior to the '97 debacle and then tell me if the Services guys don't know what they are doing Having said that, I do not believe the fat lady is singing yet. I do believe she's in her dressing room with the stage dress on and all made up. She's probably warming up those vocal chords too. If I were to use a baseball metaphor, I'd say this rally is in the bottom of the 7th, top of the 8th. Wanna know the ultimate OS timer of all times - Admiral Dore of GLBL. When he bails on GLBL it's time to go. Don't even wait for Grandma. <g> Watch him very carefully - he DOES know what he is doing - beyond the shadow of a doubt. The insiders WERE early in '97 but not by that much. Dore was not, he nailed the GLBL top almost down to the day. Am I saying sell all patch stocks now? Nope! We may very well get that last euphoric blow off to 141. I hope we do, because I'm still in to the tune of 60% Laggard OS - 7% gold - 23% cash. I am saying it's getting late in the game. For me. My strategy is to begin to leg out now on sharp rallies and look to enter other sectors. As the Dogster says "Plan your trade, trade your plan." I'm sure you have your own, but this is mine. To each his own. BTW I hope you make lots of dough in your drillers - really. Also for the past two weeks some data has been nagging at me like a bad conscience. But it was all very unconscious - I guess I didn't want to really face it. It is this. The "Anglo" countries are really starting to slow pretty dramatically now. UK, US, AU. A bit faster than I thought. I may start revising my world wide growth numbers on that basis. If world growth slows to 2 or 3% percent with OPEC pumping full tilt, this sector will have problems. Not saying I'm revising down just yet, but am watching the numbers a lot more closely now. What I'm trying to say is we may be looking at slower growth in the next two qtrs, (that's 6 months), than I had anticipated. BTW for the past few weeks some of the best performers in the US stock market have been utilities and financials. Hmmmm. More canaries?