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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (11719)	6/7/2000 9:24:00 AM
From: SKIP PAUL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

I am still not sure how the DS group will get going. If QCOM demands its full royalty and others do too, how will DS be able to compete with MC.

To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (11719)	6/7/2000 4:18:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

AL, <...Perhaps our threadmates who think that all CDMA is strictly a one-way "tollbooth" will finally get a clue. Crux of the matter is big swings in Q's long-term earnings based on where the future 3G world ends up in the likely continuum between 70/30 DS to MC vs 90/10. Sorry, optimists, but it won't be better than a 70/30 split. > I predict a total sweep by MC-CDMA. W-CDMA will be swept into the dustbin of history. Nokia will get Q! ASICs by buying ASICs or the division. There is no mechanism to force a reduction from Q! 5.5% royalties on all flavours of CDMA. There has to be some technical merit or economic attraction to burden service providers and subscribers with extra IPR charges by Nokia, Ericsson, IDCC etc for the DS CDMA [W-CDMA/VW40] effort. There is none. Therefore there is no attraction to use DS CDMA. If Nokia gets Q! ASICs, they will be ready to rumble with full-blown CDMA. At present they are nowhere. CDMA is absolutely a one-way toll booth to Q! Q! will be paid 5.5% or whatever it is [that figure comes from Korean disclosure of IPR charges contrary to their confidentiality agreements]. If somebody wants to use DS-CDMA and incur another 1, 2, 3 or 10% that is up to them. They will then pay perhaps 15% [at 10% for the VW40 component] royalties instead of only 5.5% which would buy a ready-to-roll CDMA 3G system - which will be field-tested and demonstrated at least a year before VW40 is anywhere near ready. Suppose there is some really good reason to pay that extra 3% or 10% to get bells and whistles from IDCC, Nokia, L M Ericsson etc. The ASICs division of Q! will have to pay that extra royalty rate, which, per the 3G rules, is to be fair, equitable, equal etc. So they will be able to just use the bells and whistles technology, same as the others. There is no mechanism to get them to pay more. If they don't have any IPR to swap, that doesn't mean the pooling arrangement excludes them, it just means some value needs to be set on that pooled IP and they can help themselves. Same as somebody can just help themselves to Q! IP, [as the VW40 gang seems intent on doing], pay the 5% going rate and they are in business [after going through court to defend their use of the IP and no doubt being granted a licence on the basis of fair, equal, equitable and all that good socialist claptrap]. Q! has got two departments. Just as the handset division had to compete with licensees, including paying royalties to the IP division, the ASICs division should be expected to compete while paying the IP division full royalties on ASICs for 3G. If they can't do it or even if they can, then maybe Nokia should own the ASICs division. But whatever happens, it's a one-way street with IP payments pouring into Q! at the rate of 5.5% or so and everyone should just get used to the idea, same as they expect to pay for DSPs, solder, batteries, and plastic for the cases, which they don't seem to whine about so much. If the VW40 gang or China find some better IP cheaper, then they should go for it! I haven't seen anything to make VW40 superior. The 'backward compatible' to GSM claims are simply lies. It is NOT backward compatible any more than MC-CDMA is backward compatible to GSM. Vodafone already demonstrated overlay using Q! IS-95 a couple of years ago and MC-CDMA can be done the same. The same as DS-CDMA can be fitted to GSM foundations. There is plenty to show MC-CDMA as superior. Market-timing, technology certainty, lower royalties and total cost not to mention roaming compatibility at lower cost being good enough by themselves. Add SnapTrack, 724 Solutions, and all those Q! bells and whistles and we'll see who wants to buy what! There you are AL, how's that for a clue? Pretty good I reckon. Mqurice PS: If you go to page 10 at this url, cdg.org it shows the growth projected by the CDMA Development Group [CDG] to 2005 for the various mobile phone systems. W-CDMA is gaining ground but small compared with the other CDMA flavours. WARNING it's about 300,000 bytes. So, if you don't have a WWeb access with HDR, and are stuck with GPRS or EDGE you might prefer not to view it as it'll take ages to download. NOT that I have anything against GPRS you understand. Or the Bleeding EDGE...