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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johnsto1 who wrote (53241)	6/7/2000 6:23:00 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 99985

I like that a lot.... except for one part. If you start using recent sales, like Verio, for example.... then you get into the quandry of relative value vs. real/supportable/sustainable/equateable/etc values.... i.e if AKAM is worth so much, then it follow that ISLD is worth so much without any previously traditional grounding to support the arguement...beyond faith/hot air/ greed/whatever.... if you stay with in your equation however.... and fix it somewhat within a more specific context(s)... which industry+which demand curve/need curve+lead in the market/competive edge...and all the other stuff....I agree you could zero in to a decent, even more than decent guess....... but then you also have to assume every investment of that kind has a buy out value/safety value/an end dividend when mgmt is willing to cash out or whatever basis they will use....... Perhaps your approach is a lot better than some which have been used and some which are now being refuted.... I can think of one or two cases easily where your logic would make a fairly even bet that at least the down side to the value problem would be limited by a guess at the buy out value.......equals a level of safety.... I'm with you on this...theoretically at least. Thanks for not walking away from your logic but outlining it instead. J