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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (5210)	6/7/2000 9:22:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 5676

ATG, absolutely....the gold market is so small in the overall scheme of things, that it would indeed take only very little to get it going. especially since the market is heavily short via the gold leasing schemes and producer forward selling. some estimates of this aggregate short position put it at 14-16,000 tons. that's about 5 - 6 times annual production, and there's a primary supply demand deficit of approximately 1,500 tons annually already (newly mined gold vs. demand). this deficit is partly compensated by scrap, dishoarding and CB sales...however, the largest source of supply, the CB sales is now at a fixed order of magnitude for the next five years, running at 400 tons annually for the Washington agreement signatories, which were the most active sellers and lenders up until now. indications are that the paper (via derivative strategies) short position of the big bullion bank players has been expanded greatly with the objective of keeping the price in check. this is a potentially very explosive situation.... regards, hb