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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stcgg who wrote (53316)	6/7/2000 8:11:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

sentiment indicators: CBOE total put/call ratio: 0,44 equity only: 0,41 index: 0,71 (!) Rydex ratio: 0,10 (one more day like today and it's back at an all time low - after the last all time low was made, the NAZ promptly dived by 34% within three weeks) conclusion: too much bullishness...this means upside from here should be limited. note also that Byron Wien and Charles Biederman turned 'super-bullish' today if CNBS is to be believed, and the lone bearish WS strategist, Charles Blood threw the towel yesterday. oh yes, and Ralph Acampora gave the 'all clear' two days ago. soon be time to go short again.... regards, hb

To: Stcgg who wrote (53316)	6/8/2000 8:20:00 AM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 99985

Stcgg--I expect 10971 to be exceeded--but that in and of itself does NOT invalidate the Bear case (I'm neutral)---Breaking above 11142 invalidates the abcde Triangle alternative from 9735 and above 11425 invalidates the possibility that we are tracing out a 3-3-5 flat from the April 14 low as a larger B wave (the A being the straight down 'impulsive looking' shot down from 11425 to 10201).---Advanced GET is showing 2 potential stop and reverse areas near term--the first near 11,100ish and the second near 11,300ish and we are now likely in wave (v) of the move from 10259 low on May26 when this rally started. There are a host of fib time dates clustering around June 6-8 period as a key area for a High so the jury is still out. 10971 in and of itself is not that important to me but 11142 is. The Naz might also be tracing out a 3-3-5 Flat from the 3000ish low as a B Wave with a potential stop and reverse area near 4100. We shall see. Too risky at the moment to be heavily invested for my blood......From a medium term perspective, some are thinking that the Secular Bull will extend into late 2001 and ,if so, the best way for that to happen might be for another shot down to new lows in order to furthur build a base. In a nutshell, nothing would surprise me in here and the odds are not sufficiently heavily weighted ine way or the other for me to take a major position. One of the troubling things to me is that the SPX looks to me to have traced out a 3 Wave from the 1325 Low of Feb28 to 1553 on Mar24 rather than a 5. That has me wary.