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To: Joe NYC who wrote (104184)	6/7/2000 11:01:00 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: As far as the future of Java, I think it depends greatly on MSFT / DOJ. If the old Microsoft remains here, I would have to bet on MSFT and their COM / COM+ technology over Java. Joe, It has nothing to do with microsoft, it has everything to do with Sun. The purpose of java is to avoid the Microsoft monopoly. JVM's should allow you to use any java software on any platform. Traditional software had to be made for one OS, since Microsoft had the biggest marketshare it was the default choice for your application. Java will never work with Sun (or any other company) in control of the standard. IBM has 2nd biggest software revenue next to Microsoft. If you subtract OS revenue, IBM by far has the most software revenue. IBM is committing heavily to java. The current problems rest with Sun's failed attempts to give up control of java. IBM feels that Sun has mislead them that they would let a standards organization take control of java. If IBM has the number 2 software revenue in the industry consisting of multiple applications, it would be far too dangerous to go ahead with a heavy java commitment when your main competitor controls the standards. IBM's position is that Sun has no intellectual property claim because IBM wrote 80% of the api's. Until this issued is settled, java has the "unix effect" hanging over its head. No one wants this, but neither IBM or Sun seem willing to give in. I think it was asked before, but why do you think there will not be a Java engine for IA64? Despite their distaste for Java, MSFT apparently has a good Java engine for IA32. Why do you think they can't port this thing to IA64? I never said Itanium wouldn't have a java engine. That's not where the problem lies. IF java becomes as big as some hope, processor architecture will play a huge role in java performance. I'm not the best person to explain this, but I'll give it my best shot. There's no question, IBM and Intel are taking very different paths with POWER4 and IA64. Intel is going with instruction-level parallelism (ILP) so they have defined a new instuction-set architecture(ISA). IBM is focusing on dynamic scheduling instead of EPIC-style static scheduling. Intel is focusing on single thread ILP at the expense TLP or memory bandwidth. IBM has not focused on ILP but instead on memory bandwidth and TLP. IBM states that ISA is in a non-issue because parallelism won't happen until quantom dots replace transistors, so therefore have focused on memory bandwidth which they believe is the bottleneck. Sun has taken a similar approach with their MAJC architecture which focuses on TLP instead of ILP. Java is heavily multithreaded which plays into the TLP type of architecture. IBM has a huge lead in copper, SOI, and R&D so I think from a manufacturing point they will stay ahead for at least another 5 years. Sun doesn't even control its own destiny by relying on outsourcing (not to mention it's not known as a top notch chip design company). I don't see any other competitor except Compaq. They've always had the best processor and still haven't dominated the market and I don't see that changing. IBM will have a serious lead on the top end in about 2 years. Of course, all of this depends on execution for all companies involved. I think IA64 will be a big bread winner for INTC, but not for high end servers. The money will be made on the desktop and low end servers. chic