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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bux who wrote (11799)	6/7/2000 10:16:00 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

Do you believe the recent share weakness is because WCDMA will rule and QCOM won't participate? Bux, absolutely not. While WCDMA will rule in the 70-90% range of ultimate 3G, due to politics, installed base, the network effect, "good-enough" technology, etc., IJ is way too smart to let Qualcomm not participate. I think (in retrospect) much of the stock-buying world in November and December believed the one-way slam-dunk Winn view, and now that it turns out life is not anywhere that simple, the disappointment has swung the stock price pendulum too far the other way. There are huge, huge, gigantic numbers for Qualcomm swinging in the balance of MC 10% to MC 30% 3G world share. That's the guts of the battle, and we longs are betting on the fat side of that range based on MC-CDMA's functionality, time to market, and overall system cost. But as intelligent investors, it would be imprudent not to game the range of likely competitive responses and outcomes, or to dismiss the GSM and TDMA vendor and carrier crowds as a bunch of technologically inept FUD-slinging has-beens. ------------------------------------------------------- P.S. Well, for straight TDMA, they are technological has-beens, but it sure doesn't look realistic to model that user base into big QCOM revenue generators anytime soon. P.P.S. OT here: The biggest difficulty I have with this investment historically has not been with trying to model how the future will play out for the company, but figuring what mean set of expectations is built into the stock price. In fundamental reality, not much has changed at all in the past six months since the early November product intros - but look at that stock chart!