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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Lloyd who wrote (5254)	6/8/2000 9:12:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

Don, <<There are strong reasons to believe that real economic progress does not necessarily lead to strong financial results for either companies or investors. In the end, investors may have to take their gains largely from the increased purchasing power of their (possibly diminishing) capital.>> this is what the adoption of the internet will probably bring about...profit margins will be competed away ever faster, it will be a great boon to consumers (enhancing standards of living as you mention), but companies will find it increasingly difficult to make a profit. however, i do not agree that we can not come to any conclusions at all by looking at economic data. to give you an example, one of the facets of the long lasting boom is the enormous increase in private sector debt coupled with a plunging savings rate. it is therefore legitimate to come to the conclusion that an economic downturn will probably be magnified by a scramble to reduce the debt load and increase savings, as well as a growing reluctance by banks and credit markets to lend. it is also legitimate to conclude that since credit is growing much faster than the economy, that at some point a natural limit will be reached. regards, hb