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To: John Stewart who wrote (2828)6/8/2000 9:57:00 AM
From: Philip W. Dunton, Jr  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3661
 
From Briefing.com
Lehman on Semi Equipment : The outlook for semiconductor capital spending continues to improve.
2000 capital spending will exceed 1999 by over 50%, up from their previous estimate of 41%. Chip
demand, capacity utilization, and capital spending trends are veryrobust. Valuations are very attractive
given the favorable capital spending cycle.



To: John Stewart who wrote (2828)6/9/2000 4:13:00 PM
From: heavenly  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3661
 
How about that 12.9% increase today? Your prediction of "high 30's very soon" is upon us.

Have a great weekend!!!

Steve



To: John Stewart who wrote (2828)6/10/2000 5:41:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 3661
 
Well, first off, when we talked to the IR dept again, they swear Brad resigned his position and the SEC filing is in error. So, I have no definitive answer. More than likely I will have to ask Brad if he is a SEMICON this year.<GGG>

As far as good things coming down the road, I am a firm believer that games are being played with CFMT right now and I am one of those that believes that CFMT will be taken over by MTSN. However, I also believe companies like GSNX, GGNS, ADEX, TWAV, SFAM, CFMT, and a host of other lesser tier stocks are going to go into a very aggressive consolidation phase as we get closer and closer to the 300mm implementation.

I have every reason to believe that not only will MTSN being acquiring some companies like CFMT, but I will go on record here as stating that MTSN is most likely looking to merge its company with a bigger company such that they can provide additional funding for future success. I have made a very good case for a more global enterprise as an acquirer or merger partner.

MTSN is a well run company and has a great platform for future products. MTSN also will be a decent provider of equipment to the industry, moving forward an moving into the 300mm arena. However, as good as MTSN is, it is still too small a fish to garner the respectability and customer loyalty as long as it stays independent. The Top tier companies like AMAT, NVLS, etc. are too big a threat to the niche players in this sector. While MTSN is not a small niche player, it is not larger enough to stand on its own. Aligning itself with a larger company that has an added presence outside of the US and has a bigger piggy-bank, will allow MTSN to grow its product line and customer base.

Bottom Line: for what MTSN has to offer, we see CFMT as a strategic acquisition and then an alignment with a larger company will make the combined enterprise a formidable player in the global market, especially in Europe.

On a conspiracy theory side of things, we published a few interesting items about CFMT, but it is equally interesting that as CFMT continues to trade uncharacteristically high volume with no price movement, MTSN is moving up steadily on less spectacular volumes.

So, in my conspiratorial mind, I see some heavy pressure to keep CFMT down in price while running up MTSN. Then we do the deal around Semicon in July for stock, which might look good on paper since CFMT shareholders are now being shown that volume will not move CFMT up.

NOTE: this year at SEMICON is the 30th anniversary. Call me crazy but this industry does have its political and emotional moments, so an announcement at Semicon West's 30th Anniversary Banquet seems the logical time to spring this surprise.

AV

PS - even if this scenario does not come to fruition (but I believe it will), we are convinced that MTSN is a prime takeover candidate with at least 3 major suitors, if these 3 companies have an ounce of brains or sense. There are some things that are just to obvious to disregard. As more of the major equipment suppliers are providing comprehensive field service and guaranteed uptime contracts, with in house reps, you will start seeing companies like AMAT increase the visibility within the wafer fabs and the smaller companies wind up on the short end of things. The only way to counter this is to consolidate into a large enough enterprise that allow similar service programs competitively. In order to do this, the second and third tier equipment suppliers should recognize the need to reduce competition amongst themselves and band together against the major threats to their continued success.

At current share prices companies like NVLS and AMAT could buy any company the need, if they were a threat or if they provide a complimentary product to expand their portfolio inexpensively. Keep in mind, we reading more an more about capacity constraints at the equipment suppliers. This makes it easier to acquire manufacturing capacity than to have to build it from the ground up.

As usual, this is our opinion, but we have had a great track record this year and are sticking to our belief. We also recognize comments like this could be manipulative and entice some smaller investors to chase after these stocks,cauisng them to rise. So we warn people against that and want everyone to know this is our opinion and we do not want anyone to react to these comments, especially after the nice run on Friday. The final investment decisions are left to the individual and all that is presented here is some additional data to consider and not a hyper for this company.

Andrew Vance
RadarView Newsletter
www.radarview.com