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To: The Verve who wrote (11869)	6/8/2000 7:32:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

Verve, Yes, MC = cdma2000 and DS = VW40 so we are using the right assumptions. Unicom is not a singular identity. The two identities are also in a multipath rake receiver concatenation of politics from Jiang Zemin, Zhu Rongji and co, WTO, USA Senate and PNTR [permanent normalized trade relations], GSM growth, the need to get the IPO for one of the Unicom identities away to a roaring success, while whittling away the Q! royalties, getting handsets and infrastructure produced in China and negotiating good terms with the 12 infrastructure suppliers who have offered to build CDMA networks. I think there is enough in there [and of course there is more] to cause any amount of confusion, FUD and FAQ. So if we cut to the chase: Unicom [the parent group with the CDMA licence which is being dangled and yanked, dangled and yanked] WILL roll out CDMA and they'll start at the end of this year and they'll be doing it with 1X stuff. I bet Samsung gets a good chunk of the business. They haven't finished negotiating and that's why they aren't doing it right now. Unicom [the IPO part] will build their GSM as best they can using foreign money and the AWE model for TDMA. Eventually, they will be the DS [W-CDMA] group, if VW40 ever moves out of the Vapour-Wear stitch-room. Carriers are NOT leaping to grab MC yet because they are not certain of data demand. They have not got spectrum yet [Vodafone UK and others just won the $36bn auction and we'll get some indication there of how much switcheroo to MC we'll get]. They are waiting to see how royalties pan out and how 3G negotiations finalize and what suppliers will be offering. Carriers are in a waiting game. They want to go really, really slowly, getting all they can from GSM, which is making them heaps, then when things heat up a bit, like Olympic Indoor Bicycle racers they'll pedal like hell to be first. First to lunge at MC is NOT necessarily going to be a winner and will NOT be able to slipstream the others and could end up last and broke! That's my theory on what's happening. It's a waiting and pressure-building game and then a Sprint to grab market share. The UK spectrum auction was a very loud lap bell!! Vodafone has teamed with Mannesmann, AirTouch etc ready for when the race gets seriously fast and furious. Nobody is going to wait 10 years for 4G. Allan - A TDMA service provider which will convert to CDMA is Telecom New Zealand Limited, which is preparing a CDMA network as we speak. It will be ready to sell service about June next year. It will be 1X [Kiwis love WWeb] with HDR and MC-CDMA coming along behind. They mostly use analogue with quite a few TDMA customers. Lucent will build the network - L M Ericsson, the usual supplier, missed out [they were too busy 'denying the request for CDMA' as Las Ramqvist, that great marketer, put it]. Another is AT&T. Their TDMA network is a dog's breakfast and now is an AWEful network. But they scored a few $$billion so they can fund a CDMA network. Another is DoCoMo. They are hoping to get VW40 rolling out - they are going to get the big squeeze from the CDMA carriers. We saw how popular imode is. Watch how popular a serious WWeb access can be. Korea will demonstrate soon. More GSM and TDMA converts will be in the USA. It won't be long before the GSM carriers in the USA are under huge pressure to provide WWeb access. What will they do? Wait 3 years [or more] for some version which won't be any better to come out? On the ASICs division, okay, I agree selling just the 3G DS part is pointless. Selling the rest doesn't make much sense either unless there is a seriously huge price paid and the 6 Musketeers agree to ditch W-CDMA. Mqurice