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To: Dan3 who wrote (104255)	6/8/2000 8:54:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Anything is possible during these major product transitions. It is possible that AMD's own product introductions and transitions may hit major bumps in the road. Even though AMD's product transitions are less aggressive than Intel's they are still highly dependent on third parties. If Intel completes the upgrade of it drivers to fully utilize the streaming features of RDRAM the new Athlon's may lose many benchmarks to the older P-III. That will put Intel at a distinct advantage in Q4 from a cost performance viewpoint. If those new drivers are used with Willamette + RDRAM, I'll wager that Willy will dominate T-Bird. Lots of things can happen between now and then. JK

To: Dan3 who wrote (104255)	6/8/2000 9:34:00 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Dan, <In Q4, Willamette will be just entering production, with little volume. AMD's Dresden FAB will be midway through its ramp, giving AMD a lot of high speed product to move in the quarter, product as fast or faster than anything INTC can produce during that time.> You think Thunderbird or Mustang will be able to compete MHz wise with Willamette? Think again. Tenchusatsu

To: Dan3 who wrote (104255)	6/9/2000 7:39:00 AM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Dan3, In Q4, consumer purchases dominate, and AMD has been much more successful in that arena than in the Fortune 1000 sector where INTC has been relatively bulletproof (so far). First, don't underestimate corporate 4th quarter sales, they are very strong. Second, a looming memory shortage could limit sales of everybody's PC's. Third, there will be a lot of new products competing for consumer discretionary dollars, from handhelds to Sony PS2's. Consumer spending is not infinite, compelling new products take sales from other products that are not direct competitors, but are in the same price category. There is already some info that retail sales are soft, credit Mr. Greenspan. I'm not at all convinced that the 4th quarter will be strong for retail PC sales. John