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Gold/Mining/Energy : Panaco Corp (PANA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: MarcG who wrote (67)6/8/2000 10:28:00 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Respond to of 115
 
upbook/Marc, I WANT BOTH, DAMMIT!! <G>

BTW, thanks kindly for posting here at SI. There are a lot of closet PANA fans here but are too bashful to post to a dead board I bet.

Ed



To: MarcG who wrote (67)6/28/2000 11:02:00 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Respond to of 115
 
Got a newsletter that has a PANA writeup in it, from Michele today. Something called the "Energy Letter", put out by Burns, Gustus Equity Research, which is a division of Wyoming Financial Securities. Editor's name is Joseph Anacona, 561-795-7340. Never heard of 'em but what do I know.

They maintain a "Strong Buy" on PANA and in a 2 paragraph update, dramatically raised their 2000 projections, to earnings of $.40 and cash flow of $1.45 per share. Nice to see these guys finally start to see things my way!

Newsletter was dated 6/12 and may have been responsible for the spike up to $1.69 on 6/13, with immense volume.

Newsletter writers tend to travel in packs, and when one guy picks something up and shows he can move a stock, other ones start jumping on the bandwagon. The key in the newsletter industry is to be able to clearly show that you are the hammer for a stock. Do this and you sell newsletters, plain & simple.



To: MarcG who wrote (67)7/30/2000 2:17:33 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Respond to of 115
 
The PANA stock price chart is showing all the earmarks of a coiled spring that is ready to explode on the first hint of good news. All the other high-profile O&G stocks have crashed & burned with the downswing in natgas prices but PANA is stubbornly holding up.

I've cast my lot with TMR with respect to recent energy buys, but will dump that in a minute if their 2Q earnings release does not power that stock up. Money from selling TMR will flow into PANA if it is still under $1.55 at the time.

All those poor slobs that had buy orders in at under $1.50, waiting for what looked to be an inevitable dip in the price of PANA, must be shaking in their boots now. Do they climb the ladder or wait until Wednesday? Only thing that could drag down the stock price now would be an unfavorable AGA number on Wednesday.



To: MarcG who wrote (67)9/27/2000 9:10:31 AM
From: Ed Ajootian  Respond to of 115
 
This latest East Breaks news is very exciting, and has finally compelled me to jack up my price targets. I'm reiterating my "Strong Buy" on Panaco, with new price targets of $5 by Halloween, $6 by Thanksgiving, and $7 by Christmas.

The big impact of this well is what it sets up for future drilling in this area. In the IPAA presentation that PNO did in April they included some amplitude charts of this area, which showed 4 undrilled fault blocks in the TW3 sands, all looking about the same. This first well has proven that their interpretation of those fault blocks is correct. They had estimated that those fault blocks would contain 75 BCFE of gas if their geological interpretation was correct. So now the market will start to give some value to not only this well but also the remaining undrilled sites in this area.

With the 12 month futures strip at about $5, what should we be using for the value of an mcf of gas in the ground? I would venture that it should be upwards of $2. So take the 75 BCF and multiply times 83% NRI, then multiply times $2/mcf, and you get a whopping $125 M for the value of the reserves that they've just proven up, or north of $5 per share.

Granted, some of this value has already been baked into the stock price. But I believe that only $1 or so of the current stock price is due to the potential of Panaco's East Breaks play. Ergo the likely $4 increase once it becomes obvious that this play is working out (i.e., once the second well gets drilled and completed and the third well is in progress).

We will not likely get any analyst coverage on this stock for quite awhile, given the departure of Larry. But my feeling is that the stock can still move up substantially without such, just based on its drilling performance.

With natgas prices being so high for September, Panaco may even end the quarter with positive working capital, for the first time in eons. This would be very bullish, since a lot of investors screen out all stocks with deficits in working capital.