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To: Helios who wrote (53970)	6/9/2000 12:50:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 116801

<Hey maybe some of the gold bugs on this thread should consider diversifying into He futures or hoarding bottles of it in their basements.> How has the "new era" been treating you over the past few months, Helios? Last time we spoke, I warned you that the "new era" high tech stocks would be subject to the old laws of finance. I hope you took my advice and diversified a little bit out of those over hyped "poppycock" Internet stocks. I do diversify and I do invest in high tech, including "new era" stocks. But I don't just limit myself to that realm, as most of the high techies do. And Yes, I'm proud to be a Gold Advocate. I don't look at the world of finance from one narrow minded point of view. Pays to diversify, doesn't it?

To: Helios who wrote (53970)	6/9/2000 2:13:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116801

Helios: I think the Fed funds rate will be raised from its current level of 6.5% to 7.25% by the 3rd quarter of 2000. The 50 basis point increase in May signaled that the Fed is out to squash any possible inflation. Moreover, a careful reading of the notes form the May 16th meeting shows that the Fed is committed to raising rates in the future: "The risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future." I do not think that the equity market has priced in an additional rise of 75 basis points. Moreover, the Poly's have not fully capitulated yet, and many "new era" investors have been fighting the Fed based on the historically-observed effect that high-tech capital spending is generally insensitive to interest rates. HA! HA! HA! Let me inform you that Technology stocks follow a cycle of boom, followed by the building up of inventories, followed by bust. It looks like we may have reached a peak in the technology cycle. Want to talk about earnings? The time to worry about earnings is not when they are weak but rather when they are strong. Do you really think that Fed tightening will not have a dramatic effect on earnings moving forward? Let me tell you a secret, Helios, before it's to late: Earnings growth for your darling high techs is unsustainable in the face of higher interest rates. The only way the market could experience some kind of rally at this point is if the Fed surprises the market by not raising rates further. If I was you, I'd diversify as soon as possible. Why not buy what most investors/traders have already trashed and sold and which represents the inverse of this great bull market? The unthinkable is thinkable. The Impossible is quite Possible.