To: Think4Yourself who wrote (67939 ) 6/9/2000 10:51:00 AM From: Big Dog Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
John Q -- The rigs that FLC has left to activate are the smaller ones...they are worth $10-20 million each. The big pile of debt comes from the new drillships, at $300 million a whack. It would take 15-30 of those small rigs to make up the price of a new ship. Deepwater is where the revenue needs to come from to support those huge captial investments. Jackup revenue is good, but is almost chump change in the big picture. Orders for new rigs will come. Drillers love to grow...whether its by buying rigs or building rigs. If they can do so without Wall Street cutting them up they will do it. Right now they are all in great financial shape...plus -- it's not their personal money, so why not use it? Making the wrong decisions in the offshore drilling business never got senior mgmt fired. It seems that the drillers think, right or wrong, that their stock is valued as a multiple of asset value. Therefore, more assets, more value. I don't fully agree with this, but it seems to be the common thought with the drillers and with money sources. Asset values are ramping up rapidly as we speak. So it may follow that stock values will do the same. I have a feeling that FGH may be the surprise upside winner before this year is out as some orders start coming in. Everything starts with talk, and talk is rampant. It's important to note that the tanker business is doing very well and eastern shipyards are starting to book up slots. This could benefit FGH as the low cost provider finds other work to do. Also, if you want MARAD financing for a rig project, you have to build in a US yard...there aren't many to choose from. Advantage FGH. big