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To: Helios who wrote (54021)	6/9/2000 11:28:00 PM
From: Enigma	Respond to of 116810

Well Helios - I guess that's an eloquent version of 'it's different this time around'? "The price of gold barely budged, and (correct me if i am wrong) it's still well below what it takes to extract it" Well above? A lot of companies are thriving under water. '.

To: Helios who wrote (54021)	6/10/2000 2:15:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 116810

Helios, your rampant bullishness, excessive optimism, and unlimited confidence in the omniscient ways of the Fed is scary and indicative of a Top. At the top, optimism is king, speculation is running wild( as it was earlier this year), stocks carry high price/earnings ratios ( I forgot that is irrelevant to you), and liquidity has evaporated. A rise in interest rates can easily be the catalyst for triggering a bear market, as we've seen in the Naz. On the first decline, pessimism does not pick up very much. ( You are a prime illustration of that.) Remembering the lessons of this great bull market, investors like yourself rush to buy all the declines, figuring that prices will bounce back to new highs. ( In your own words, "it's blue skies and your going sailing."). But all these rallies falter, don't get very far, and above all, fail to make a new high. All the ensuing declines come and carry prices even lower. I think we are still in the very early stages of a high tech bear market. After the spectacular rise in many of the high techs, it will take numerous sell offs over many many months before pessimism really picks up speed. At some point in the midst of a bear market, business conditions worsen and the pessimism grows and grows. We finally reach the depths of pessimism when business conditions are terrible. I feel that at present we are in the midst of a bear market rally. In Bear rallies the pessimism usually fades rapidly since investors like yourself are very eager to want to believe in the rally, hoping that the old bull market in high tech is resuming. But at the bottom of a bear market most investors have been hammered too many times and regard the first true rally in the new bull market as an opportunity to sell. As a "new era" convert, I know you don't take fundamentals very seriously at all, so I won't bore you to much here. But there are suggestions that the economy has weakened somewhat. Especially important was the jump in the average maturity of money funds, which rose last week to 51 days( then gave back one day falling to 50 days) from a previous 48 days. This when combined with rising credit spreads, especially between the Eurodollars and the Treasury Bills, known as the Ted Spread, and between corporates and treasuries, suggest to me that a liquidity squeeze had begun. A liquidity squeeze is a bad thing for bonds, and eventually for the economy. As businesses can't borrow to fund operations and expansions, they have very little option than to cut expenses. And one of the easiest expenses is to cut labor. And although there was some confusion in the figures released by the government, the economy lost jobs for the first time in a long while. Furthermore, I don't even want to get started over the economic implications of a weaker dollar and a stronger Euro, as I'll never get to sleep tonight. As for Gold, I agree with you that the situation looks bleak: gold stocks can't even rally anymore when the POG rises. To be sure, most investors and traders view gold stocks as junk and garbage. But that is one of the reasons why I am so bullish on its prospects here: the super hostile attitude and bashing of them by you, signifies a bottom. Repeat after me Helios, Gold is a Currency. Gold is a Currency. Do you know what that means as the US economy slows and the Dollar enters a period where it declines? Commodity prices are rising, Helios. Have you bothered to look at the CRB lately?