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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (115308)	6/10/2000 2:23:00 PM
From: Pravin Kamdar	Respond to of 1571249

Joe, I was at CompUSA and Circuit City yesterday. At the high end, Compaq had 1 Ghz and 900 Mhz Athlon systems, and HP had 850 Mhz and 800 Mhz Athlon systems. I did not see an Athlon system below 800 Mhz! In the midrange, Intel had 533 to 700 Mhz PIII systems. At Circuit City the highest PIII was 650 Mhz (one system). At CompUSA, the highest PIII was 700 Mhz (one system only). What happened to the Intel 733 and 800 Mhz systems? At the low end, Celeron and K6-2 were roughly equally represented. This really paints a stunning picture. Soon, Duron will severely challenge the PIII in the midrange. If Willamette really does not penetrate the mass market until 2H, 2001 (as predicted by the head of ALi), AMD will own the high end for another full year. And, if recent Willamette benchmarks prove to be correct, Mustang will rule until Sledge is released into the consumer market. Yes, it's looking like I will have to hold my AMD shares through 2001, and, perhaps, beyond. Pravin.

To: Joe NYC who wrote (115308)	6/10/2000 4:20:00 PM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 1571249

Interesting speculation from a guy (Per) on Ace's board: aceshardware.com I asked Tom Pabst a few days ago in the Computex about this issue, he said that he didn't know the codename for the 0.13 die shrink. But he was sure that it was not the Willamette. Whenever Intel have a new core or die shrink there will be a new codename. Since the Willamette will start to replace the high-end PIII already on launch in September and move down to mid-range by Q1'2001 my personal estimation is that the PIII will reach the bottom segment by Q3'2001. There would be no reason for Intel (stupid as they are) to make a new chipset for the PIII when it's already phased out? Since the Willamette is in the 32-bit CPU family there would no point to go back a generation with a new chipset, the Almador will support the CPU after Willamette. And I think the reason we see the Northwood coming so soon after Willamette is that this is a clean cut for Intel and Rambus. Intel will be able to say that they performed according to the contract, made a CPU only for Rambus, but it didn't get a market share so they can go ahead and make a CPU for DDR which makes so much more sense. I doubt that the Tulloch chipset will see the light of the day after failures of 820, 840 and Tehama. To make a mistake three times is bad, why make it four times? Rambus is dead and Northwood coupled with Almador is the only sound thing Intel can do.