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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (53643)	6/10/2000 3:56:00 PM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

In this Business, You Never Stop Learning While there is always the danger of thinking of an article or perspective to be great because you agree with it, I really think this is one of the best articles about Stock Analysis in general, and the current markets in particular, that I have come across. I think it is good investment of almost anyone's time to read the article. The copy posted on SI is at: Message 13861774 While the original can be found at: interactive.wsj.com A few of his other comments that I particularly liked: "In this business, you never stop learning. Let me put it another way. If you stop learning, you're on your way to going out of business. Wall Street is a tough teacher but also a good teacher. If you have any weakness -- arrogance, laziness, stinginess, cowardice, procrastination -- the market will zero in on that weakness and make you pay dearly. In this business, you listen, you think, you ponder, you struggle, you wrestle with the gods of the market, and if you're me, you put yourself on the line. When you do that, you take a chance of looking like a damn fool. And if the stock market has the opportunity, believe me, it will make you look like a damn fool, at least for a while." "The sad part of it is that bear markets work just the opposite of bull markets. Just as bull markets climb a wall of worry, bear markets descend on a ladder of misplaced optimism." "There is always a disposition in people's minds to think that existing conditions will be permanent. When the market is down and dull, it is hard to make people believe this is the prelude to a period of activity and advance. When prices are up and the country is prosperous, it is always said that while preceding booms have not lasted, there are circumstances connected with this one which [are] unlike its predecessors and give assurance of permanency. The one fact pertaining to all conditions is that they will change."Up to now, the Fed has been playing it cute. They've been raising rates, but at the same time they've allowed the money supply to expand. Thus, the Fed has tried to put a ceiling on the market with rising rates while at the same time putting a floor under the market with copious cash. In the end, we may get the worst of both worlds -- a slowing economy and rising inflation. "The net result of all this is that the Fed's manipulations are extending the stock market's lengthy topping-out process, dragging it on and on and on. The Fed objects to the "irrational exuberance" of the stock market, but at the same time is afraid to let the stock market go into the tank." "Fortunately, I'm not in the business of selling stocks, so I can say what I want. I say your best position now is on the sidelines. Remember, the current tax setup, with a maximum 20% federal levy on long-term capital gains, means that if you make money, the government is only a minority partner. But if you lose money, Uncle Sam doesn't know you."

To: HairBall who wrote (53643)	6/10/2000 4:49:00 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

you can subscribe to his newletter for a couple hundred per year... in case you are interested. regards J