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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pgerassi who wrote (115327)	6/10/2000 5:33:00 PM
From: Mani1	Respond to of 1571405

Pete re <<Someone at the Q1 AMD conference call told of the expected ramp as 2000Q1: 1.2, Q2: 1.8, Q3: 3.6, Q4: 7.2, 2001Q1: 14.4, Q2: 21.6, Q3: 28.8, Q4: 36, in millions.>> That is not correct. AMD made absolutely no indication with regard to any volume past Q4 2000. Any numbers past that has nothing to do with AMD's projection since they have not disclosed it. Re << 100.8 million in 2001 including some Sledgehammers.>> Not possible under any circumstances, that would be over 50% of the market. Mani

To: pgerassi who wrote (115327)	6/10/2000 7:26:00 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571405

Pete, Your 2001 numbers ar on the high side. The growth in Athlon sales we are seeing in 2000 comes from 2 sources: additional Dresden capacity and conversion of Austin to .18u and Athlon. By Q1 2001, I think Austin conversion will be finished, and there will be no additional growth in Athlon sales from there. If Austin makes all Duron at .18u and nothing else, it could make 10M Durons, but to be realistic, since other products are made there, let's not count on more than 6 to 7 million. I don't know know about conversion plans to .13u, but I think AMD will stay with .18u AL and Duron as long as possible, to avoid unnecessary capital expenditures. In Dresden, when fully equipped in Q4 2001, AMD could make 10M Thunderbirds using .18u process, slightly more after .15u and .13u shrinks. So my optimistic scenario for 2001 is Q1: 11, Q2: 13, Q3: 15, Q4: 17 million units, for total of 56 million units, slightly above AMD estimate of 50 million units. Still, 50 million units at ASP between $100 and $150 comes to annual revenue between $5 billion and $7.5 billion just from the microprocessor sales. Joe