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To: High-Tech East who wrote (32728)	6/10/2000 7:14:00 PM
From: techtonicbull	Respond to of 64865

High-Tech East: Good Post (Oracle of the Dow). I am a long term investor. I also have studied the Ibbotson charts which show a natural "up trend" to the market. This trend makes sense fundamentally. Owning great companies are the key. These companies are going to strive to cut overhead, make sure their model of business leads to great "top line" growth and are going to be a factor for some time in the future. I do believe the re-print of this interview is an interesting opinion, however , it is just that: "One man's opinion". There is a very big driving force in the Internet that is early in its evolution. I expect to see the earnings accelerate for the infrastructure companies for the foreseeable future (next ten years at least). There are going to be mis-steps and failures for sure, but not amongst the best of the best companies SUNW, EMC, CSCO, ORCL, INTC(even MSFT).

To: High-Tech East who wrote (32728)	6/11/2000 4:27:00 AM
From: JDN	Respond to of 64865

Dear HT: Go back to bed and pull the covers over your head!! This guy is living in the dark ages. When all his formulas where concocted it was a different age. Heres at least some of what has changed. We've gone GLOBAL!! Trade barriers have nearly ceased to exist. NATIONALISM has faded and in place of it is the World Wide Village. This means goods and services seek out the most efficient market. TECHNOLOGY has and is revolutionizing the World, not just manufacturing but services as well. I could go on and on but those IMHO are the 3 main themes of this NEW ECONOMY and the driving force behind the betterment of humankind. So what is happening now? We are resting. Any problem with that? Markets have soared over past few years. No surprise to me that they are taking a break. I would also point out that EVEN in spite of this "break" the large cap, technology stocks are holding up pretty well. Its the small cap and "Old economy" stocks that have borne the brunt of the "rest" and that if nothing else, supports my original statements above. My only fear is the FED. They are perfectly capable of wrecking the market, they have the power to effect the liquidity of the market and THAT is the important factor. So far, they appear to be aware of that and have balanced the rise in interest rates (which I dont agree with for reasons previously stated) with the increase in cash availability. So, at least up till now they may not have done serious long term damage to the market. Personally, I think this upcoming 6/28 meeting is the most important to date. If they rein in and adopt a more careful consideration things should continue profitably. If not, expect a major pullback. As to interest rates themselves, while in these past few years they have APPEARED low, the truth of the matter is they are at HISTORIC HIGHS. Why? Because the REAL interest rate is that between the inflation rate and the interest rate. While interest rates have appeared low, inflation was EVEN LOWER so the SPREAD is historically high. I can proof that merely by looking at the price of GOLD. It has been in the Cellar for YEARS and that is why. JDN

To: High-Tech East who wrote (32728)	6/11/2000 5:30:00 AM
From: lee kramer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

KendallHarmon: Fine post. I highly respect Richard Russell. He's sometimes wrong, but I've found that he is scrupulously intellectually honest. That's the most I can ask for. I too believe that the DOW and NASDAQ have convincingly topped out and that we are in a primary "bear" or down market. This gives me my bias as someone who is a Trader. There will be rallies, sometimes quite sharp, as we've recently seen...and these rallies can can bought; but for me, my finger is always poised above the "sell" button if I'm long and see a trade that can be taken. And, because I feel the other "galosh" has yet to drop...there will be many stocks that will decline, and can be shorted. So...for me it continues to be "hit & run"...and smaller positions taken...and stop-orders to limit losses when wrong. The recent rally has some analysts and traders saying that we've hit bottom; I'd say that this is perhaps a 33% probability. If it turns out that we have seen a bottom, I'll (hopefully) change my thinking. And if we have seen a bottom, there will be time and profits on the long side. But I think it'll be a very long time before we see another market, especially NASDAQ, that we saw from 1996 until Feb. 2000. (Lee)