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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: john rieck who wrote (53660)	6/10/2000 10:25:00 PM
From: Stephen	Respond to of 99985

I've been out of action recently ... first with flu ... then with a back that went from bad to worse because my incessant coughing irritated it. First time my pain barrier ever blew a fuse ... it was real interesting. Anyway .. I digress. I happened upon a TV programme called 'The O'Reilly Factor' .. and he's not so bad. He was asking why Bill wasn't publicly supporting the market as it (the Nasdaq) had dropped 40% ... and I got the impression he was hiurting. Anyway ... he was interviewing someone from the WSJ I think ... getting an opinion. Then he said what would happen. He said his contacts had told him that the China acceptance to the WTO would be approved and that AG would say something within the week after that to the effect that he saw the economy slowing down. This would cause the markets to rally. He said a lot of back room pressure was being put on AG and he would have to comply. Now ... whilst this didn't happen as stated ... this guy was utterly confident ... and whilst he takes a simplistic view of the market ..I think he is well connected. I listened to what he said and had little doubt the markets would go up ... not that there was much I could do about it as I was in my bed hardly able to move. So ... was this rally contrived ??. I think so. Take last Tuesday ... I think. The long bond was looking to breech a level when Al pumped a whole bunch of liquidity into the market .. and stopped it deteriorating. The market was at a critical point then and the day was saved .... So ... where to now. The retail players are back ... but the risks have never been higher. Thinly traded speculative stocks - 2nd & 3rd tier have performed well ... but if bids disappear ones going to get stiffed. I started trading again last week .. I'm been trading long with tight stops. I find many story stocks gap up and fade throughout the day - so most of my trades have been the long side for the gap-up ....so far so good. Its too early for the summer rally. Warning season starts in earnest & max pain is a bit below the current Nasdaq level. So ... I'll be looking to sell short any decent rally's and buying any decent dips intraday. Overnight, long is the place to be ... for now. All jmho ... and these comments should be taken in with the view that I reagrd the market as just a trading forum, not an investment medium ... and that with the sentiment shift the market looks more positive than negative - even if the fundamentals don't support it ( not that they matter any more) Stephen