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To: Berney who wrote (8533)6/11/2000 8:18:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11051
 
Hi Berney .

thanks

We are now in the "pre" period. A run at 1480 now would have us:

at a high three days before a full moon.
on a sell according to PI (name I decided to give thing) for next month
set up a situation where there are two active PI sells at the same time.

The twenty day post period from last option expiration ends 6/19 .. something that I overlooked when I was selecting puts :o( That would make 6/19 the last day and the first day of a "sell". Jury is still out on that.

TM's 6/12 date looks more and more interesting ..

NDX a weekly doji of some kind. Trin says that there has been huge amounts of distribution. I suppose that these forces can reverse ..

Best wishes for the Phleet .. Your pattern of run up into the FOMC could work out well for you.

BTW that was a great article! An entire generation of traders who have never traded an extended bear market!



To: Berney who wrote (8533)6/11/2000 12:21:00 PM
From: John Harton  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11051
 
Berney Trolling the NAZ 100 Part 1

Great Barron's article BTW. And somewhat disturbing for those of us who don't want the long term party to end.:-(

I ran my TA snapshot thru the entire NDX(MA,STOCH,MACD,OBV,CANDLES). Will give summary here and "notes to self" later.

SUMMMARY

1)The Naz 100 seems to have 2 classes of stocks. Those who behave on their own and those(AMAT,CSCO,etc) whose charts mirror the $NDX.(Recently with rows of little spinners and dojis on the candle chart for example).
2)It seemed to me that those who mirrored the index were the big names who are most likely to belong in other indexes and weighted heavily in mutual funds etc. Which to me begs the question "tail wagging the dog"? In other words are the trading of these larger pools and derivatives having too big a role in the performance of individual stocks who otherwise might rise or fall on their own merits?
3)BIOTECH- Appears to have had another sharp rally that is failing almost immediately. This pump and dump sector seems to do this on an annual basis.
4)There was a very high preponderance of bearish high stochastic readings throughout the 100.
5)Both the $SOX and $BTK index charts fought off bearish candlestick formations with Friday's result. The BTK seems to contradict the individual chart behavior of BGEN, AMGN, etc. Despite Friday the SOX still has high sto and a MACD sell. I think it still might sell off. BWDIK

Warning Warning **NOT OT** **NOT OT** GGGGGG

The most interesting chart find was .....INTC

siliconinvestor.com

Looking at the 3 lowest points over the 60 day chart period
all three occurred with pairing a long black candle with a long white candle the very next day. Classic BTD behavior. Sure would have been a good idea to buy at close first day...wink wink, say no more, say no more...(^_^)

Will do part 2 when I have more time.

FWIW

John