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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (27498)	6/11/2000 6:18:00 PM
From: Joe Smith	Respond to of 57584

I saw that article and thought of CICI and VRSN too. Don't know though, it looks like they are backing it with concern about privacy issues. Saw this article. Some of it is very good IMO. dailynews.yahoo.com Again I say take advantage if the Summer rally while you can, but stay light on your feet. We are rallying right now on a very limited set of data points that some are reading as pointing to a soft landing. This is not the same market as last Fall through Spring. Besides that, the market will rise and fall on the success of the economy. Who can predict that? On the bright side, we can hope that Alan G. works his magic and that the economy slows without recession or great reduction in Corporate earnings growth. If we see an unemployment rate of 4.5 or so and GDP at 3 or so and we base there, then we are off to the races because a successful soft landing is surely not priced into the market, but who can be sure of that? On the other hand, isn't a successful soft landing kind of like trying to throw a dart at a bumble bee? From this point of view, the economic outlook is fraught with peril. IMHO the Fed would rather see a mild recession than the current growth rates. As things slow, the car companies are certainly going to see a major slowdown. Everyone has a new car now (except me <g>). Also major manufacturers are going to see slowing. Does this lead to layoffs, which then leads to a consumer slowdown? Who can say what degree of success this soft landing will have? A recession and flat earnings growth is also not priced into this market. So beware. Also, they also took notice of the spike in consumer confidence. I think that this may be very important to the Fed. Finally, the fact the Fed will be on vacation for the elections may be a negative as Wall St. becomes fearful that things may get too hot again without the Fed at the rudder. All of current problems with high interest rates is because the Fed was on vacation at the end of 199 for fear of a Y2K slowdown. It put too much money in our pockets. Congratulations to those that have been able to keep it there. These issues that I am referring too are relatively long-term and will have little effect on the Summer rally IMHO unless there is new data that rains on the soft landing parade. But, I am very uncertain about the market after 7/15. This Summer rally could easily be a bear market rally when see in hindsight just as the April to October sell-off last year was clearly a Bull market sell-off. It is hard for me to imagine a Bull market during a Bear economy and I think that we all agree that the economy is slowing and will slow some more.