Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrice Gigahurtz who wrote (53687)	6/11/2000 6:22:00 PM
From: umbro	Respond to of 99985

This article, at Dismal.com discusses the prospects of a soft-landing and says it's 50/50 for a rate hike: dismal.com By Dan Green 6/09/00 11:59 AM ET Will we have a soft landing? Numerous data releases in the past two weeks have pointed towards a slowdown in growth, but analysts disagree as to whether the economy is stabilizing. The goal of recent Fed rate hikes has been to ease the soaring economy into a soft landing. A soft landing means that the economy slows to its non-inflationary potential growth rate, likely close to 3.5%. This contrasts with a hard landing, which would be a recession. A soft landing would be ideal, but has proven elusive in the past. This time around analysts are hopeful because consumers seem to be reining in their spending and production appears to be keeping pace. At the same time, inflation has remained under control. Tuesday's May retail sales report should mark the second month in a row of weakening consumer demand. This relaxation in demand is especially welcome because consumer spending drives much of the economy and because recent consumer credit reports have raised fears that some consumers are getting in over their heads in debt. [...]

To: Patrice Gigahurtz who wrote (53687)	6/13/2000 6:38:00 PM
From: James Berg	Respond to of 99985

What are the odds that the coming week yields a drop in retail sales but a firming in CPI ? It looks like your scenario has a good chance of coming to pass... I expect the CPI to be somewhere around .5% this time. Mr. Greenjeans' speech about increasing productivity and moderating inflation was a bit of a surprise, though. I've got some NDX 3600 puts which went from being at the money to well out of the money before I even knew about it. --James