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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (5483)	6/13/2000 9:41:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

I don't see how the year 2000 estimate Strategis announced in January can hold considering the 1Q numbers from US operators. The Sprint and Verizon sub growth simply doesn't support the forecast. How do you end up with GSM-1900 below 10% in 2000 when the subscriber growth is faster than in IS-95? Verizon's digital/analog mix has been shifting by just 5 percentage points during one quarter. It's a huge stretch to expect that only 3% of the phones sold in America this year would be analog. Strategis expected a huge digital breakthrough in USA for 1999 - it didn't happen. So they are simply shifting this goal to 2000 without stopping to think why they were so wrong about 1999. It's hair-raising that even Strategis has now shifted to expecting declining net subscriber growth from the year 2000 onwards. They are basically acknowledging that they don't expect USA to ever get the sudden post-30% market penetration spike in subscriber growth that we see in most markets. Eric... let's agree to drop that mantra about "largest cellular subscriber base". China has already passed USA in digital subscriber base. It's very 1989 to talk about "cellular" subscriber base - "cellular" went out with Cindy Lauper in most parts of the world. Tero