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To: LLCF who wrote (39419)6/13/2000 3:12:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 42523
 
no it isn't. that's just extrapolation of the most recent past, precisely what 'investors' in the bubble market are doing as well.
what's more, the productivity measurements of the govt. have become the subject of quite a bit of debate lately. many academic researchers have begun to question them.
if one looks at all data points in this economy with a critical eye (that includes corporate profits/balance sheets) one detects many flaws and lots of hot air/hype.
no doubt technology has advanced (it does that all the time) but at the heart of the boom/bubble lies still a historically unprecedented expansion in private sector debt. aided and abetted by the fiat Fed of course, which is why Greenjeans seems reluctant to shed light on this particular aspect of the expansion. it is still the most important datum imo.