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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (53929)	6/13/2000 7:19:00 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Now if we can just get oil prices under 30 again. Saudis quietly favour OPEC output increase canoe.ca

To: American Spirit who wrote (53929)	6/13/2000 7:39:00 PM
From: el paradisio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

AS,<Drugs leading the way this time.> and CRB on the top... this is not a GOOD sign. Look,"who" was the leader in the recent Nasdaq correction. el

To: American Spirit who wrote (53929)	6/13/2000 7:44:00 PM
From: Shtirlitz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The way I see it, is that the stock market is getting itself trapped. Stock premiums have been expanding at a much faster pace then earnings. Especially in the past 5 years. And premiums are a hot air. Expansion in premiums IS inflation. If one type of assets is losing the concept of value, the other assets will tend to do the same. Another big rally in stocks will cause explosion of inflation across the board. I'm not even talking about the consumer confidence rocketing to new highs with all consequences. Inflation is still pressing in the pipelines. Look at oil prices and CRB index for the past 2 month. PPI still shows the crude goods prices are up 13%. If Greenspan will allow this market to rally, he will have to deal with inflation bursting out of every hole. I sure hope he doesn't. This market is way too bullish. The stocks haven't been in a good bear market in a while. (I'm not counting this blip on the Nasdaq this year. Most of the high flyers are back anyway.) This stock chasing mania may continue for a while, but the higher it goes the more problems it creates for itself. The harder the landing will be. I've been bullish on this market for the past few years, but enough is enough. I don't want to pay higher premiums for stocks. Too much risk. P.S. Speaking of CPI. Coors has recently made an announcement that their earnings will be very positive. The key phrase was "Pricing environment has never been better". I wasn't surprized. But of course those BLS reports stopped showing the reality lately.