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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Grommit who wrote (10724)	10/19/2000 7:57:49 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78748

Grommit, I've added more to my WNC position today. I see in the latest edition of "Worth", p.97, that value investor Steven Romick of FPA Crescent, has picked WNC as a "stock to avoid". The article indicates that Mr. Romick believes WNC (now about 8), has a "fair value" of $5 and that WNC shows that it is making money because it is not writing down enough excess inventory and has let debt "soar from $145 million to 321 million." Really don't like seeing that analysis - it scares me because he does do excellent work and has a very respectable record both for his stock picks and, according to "Worth" for his previous pans in their magazine. He's chosen IBM in the same article at $122 and his "fair value" number for it is $75. And we have experienced a tremendous cleaving of IBM price recently. I hate going up against guys like Romick. Nevertheless, I am betting that in 18 months, WNC will be at a higher price than it is now now. In addition to their "high tech" trailer business, they have Fruehauf, so sales and service of this brand are important contributors. (I point this out to thread readers who are are unfamiliar with Wabash.) There's some insider buying, debt/eq. is .71 , p/sales are low, stock price is near an 8 year low, price less than half of book value. WNC stock could surely go lower. But I say we're right that the stock will recover from its current and depressed level. Paul.

To: Grommit who wrote (10724)	11/6/2000 5:11:30 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78748

Grommit, Wallace, others looking at transportation stocks-- fwiw, you might want to look at HUBG. Going through today's new lows list I've found it among three that I like and am buying today: finance.yahoo.com All of these stocks have problems. All are also trading under stated book value (FDY's stated bv might be highly overstated as they may've overpaid for many recent acquisitions.), and all have seen better times in the past. All have low price/sales and/or low price to ebitda. FDY and HUBG show recent insider buying. While I like HUBG the best among the three, I'm playing these as a package -- looking for reversion to the mean. Maybe only one of the three will work out, but looking in that rear view mirror - the one that does work could be a double or triple. And if so, and if the other two would just hold their ground - the package would work out profitably for me (assuming I can be patient enough to wait long enough). Paul S.