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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (53959)	6/13/2000 10:04:00 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

bobby beara: Thanks for the charts. Darn Chip's site just keeps getting better. I added bollinger bands... Ok, "who wants to be a millionaire"...which way are they going to break...<g> Regards, LG

To: bobby beara who wrote (53959)	6/13/2000 10:12:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

blue sky breakouts in the energy complex: tfc-charts.w2d.com tfc-charts.w2d.com tfc-charts.w2d.com coming close to the Saudi jawboning threshold once again i suppose...the problem is, many OPEC member states are already producing at full capacity, and will therefore strenuously oppose a hike in the production quota. the problem, as an OPEC official from Iran recently observed, is excess demand for gasoline in the US that meets with extremely low inventory levels. pumping additional crude will not help to alleviate this situation. an increase in refining capacity might, but whence should it come? alternatively a decrease in demand (read: recession) would do. without wanting to sound alarmist, in light of the fact that the American Oil & Gas Journal recently concluded that to merely keep gas inventories stable, refineries would have to run at 98% capacity throughout the summer, this looks more and more like a budding energy crisis. but not to worry...if in doubt, just ask BLS. they'll tell you prices have actually been falling, so in reality, everything's a-ok. we'll get a concerted propaganda barrage emanating mainly from Saudi Arabia (which is the only OPEC producer that might have reasonable spare capacities, in the region of 1,5m bpd.). we'll see if the markets believe it. regards, hb

To: bobby beara who wrote (53959)	6/13/2000 10:32:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

credit spreads - still comfortably in panic territory (source: prudentbear) Spreads: Last Peak 12/31/99 YTD Change Dollar Swap 123 138 79 44 US Treasury vs: 10 Year Fannie 113 125 56 57 10 Year Freddie 117 129 58 59 10 Year FHLB 117 124 68 49 Cur. Coup. Mtg. 183 206 137 46 10 Yr AA Corp 156 164 100 56 TED Spread 108 114 60 48