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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (3516)	6/14/2000 1:05:00 PM
From: LaVerne E. Olney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

J.T. We are just shy of critical 3 to 1 Long to Short in Rydex SPX assets. This is wider disparity than 6/7 close when we were 721/275 Million long/short assets. SPX then promptly went down 3 days in a row. Not a comforting thought. NDX Long OTC level have not been this high since the April 12th debacle when NDX and Comp broke 4,000 to downside. If we get follow thru day tomorrow the switch will be more ferocious LONG. I am not even going to mention the money that switched over in the NEW Dynamic Funds today from Long to Short. It is astonishing to say the least. Poor new Dynamic SPX Short Tempest and NDX Short Venture Funds. These funds are 200% INVERSELY CORRELATED SO IT IS DOUBLE TROUBLE FOR THESE LOSERS on wrong side of fence. One more up day tomorrow and there will be little money left in these short funds. <g> Not sure why you aren't seeing this more as a contrary indicator? Although not trading daily funds, I've been closing long postions this week, based primarily on these negative contrary indicators as well as market and individual issue stochastics. decisionpoint.com leo

To: J.T. who wrote (3516)	6/14/2000 10:10:00 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Wednesday June 14th: SPX Long - NOVA 720 Million SPX Short- URSA 264 Million NDX Long - OTC 3.209 BILLION NDX Short- Arktos 99 Million XAU Precious Metals 60 Million Money Market - 1.030 BILLION Short Funds still in low flat-line. Any one or two day strong rally from here will signal capitulation on short positions and cash in money market will be put to work on the Long side. The lurkers know this is ultimate CONTRARY Indicator for the venus fly trap to work its magic. Suck em in and shut the door. That same feeling as week of April 10th to 14th. Frozen deer in headlights. The smart money also knows this is NOT October 98 relived when URSA (short spx fund) was top heavy vs. NOVA (long spx fund)in 3X + ratio short over long on that capitulation October 8th close. We are now close to exact opposite parameters. People are trying to jump on the long train in fear of missing the summer rally or next leg up. Bull nirvana proponent Jack B over at the MERC - Commerz One was spewing melt-up and all this cash getting committed long by the inmates after employment report and then after PPI report. Ironically, today Jack wasn't singing the same bull harmonic tune today after core CPI was baked to perfection at .02. WHY??? Now the core nucleus down on the floor is rethinking the models and asking why no melt-up??? The answer is the money is almost all committed Long and once the last one gets in a few more days they will be left holding the bag in utter disgust. The game is getting to the boiling point on the whipsaws by the chicago boys and taking out lower supports only to reverse course. What will soon happen is people will simply walk away from the game and the money will disappear back into bonds and or fixed income investments. It is not a question of IF but WHEN it turns. It could be after Friday - next week or early July I don't know. And even in spite of this impending pendulam swing, I remain ndx long for brief duration of the rally. In the meantime, it is time to tighten up the supports on the major indices. Best Regards, J.T.