To: wonk who wrote (1741 ) 6/14/2000 11:30:00 AM From: Ilaine Respond to of 1782
I have an opinion about Iridium - the company failed, not because of fraud, mismanagement or bad timing, but a flawed business model. There really is a market for satellite telephones, but it's not the market they were going after, just as it's not the market Globalstar is going after. There just are not enough global travellers to pay for another global satellite network (I say another because Inmarsat already exists, and then there's Intelsat, and the Orbcomm constellation, although they don't have global telephone service). Think about it - how often do you telephone someone out of the country? I am 47 years old, own my own law office, and have never called anyone out of the country in my life. Now think how often someone in say, Brazil or Eritrea or even China has a reason to telephone outside the country. Pretty much never, unless they are working in a multinational industry, which probably already has land lines. I think what drove Iridium, like Globalstar, is the assumption that because the satellites were LEOs, they may as well have global service. But you can't get poor people to subsidize such an ambitious project, and the people who live in isolated areas are, by and large, impoverished. Everyone else, pretty much, can use cellular or land lines, and land based microwave is also a potential. Anyway, Iridium isn't dead yet, you know. I follow it pretty closely, and post on the Iridium thread. A company named Castle Harlan has bid for the satellites, and a group called Venture Associates is making a competing bid. The judge may have to recuse himself due to a conflict of interest - all of this will be ruled on within the next month or two. Iridium the corporation is bankrupt, but the satellites are an asset which anyone can buy, if they can afford them. Going rate seems to be about $50 million, plus having the capital to pay someone to manage the constellation. Doesn't even have to be Motorola, I think Castle Harlan has made a deal with Hughes. In the meantime, Motorola is still operating the constellation, I know the US government is a customer.