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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (14425)	6/14/2000 8:29:00 AM
From: Wally Mastroly	Respond to of 15132

Re: Natural gas prices/supply & US oil reserves... Bloomberg radio this AM indicated that the price of natural gas is up 87% from a year ago. Obviously, lower supply is a factor - partly caused by an increase in electrical power generation plants fueled by natural gas. Although release of US oil reserves would probably get OPEC's attention, the effect may only be temporary & mostly symbolic. My recollection (which is starting to experience some senior moments...) is that our total reserve would only be equivalent to about a month or two of US consumption - or maybe it was world oil production? (Can't find a link to support my memory <g>). In any case, I don't believe it would have much affect on oil prices, except in the very short term. Also, I think the original intent of the oil reserve was to be used in the event of a real emergency (i.e., an interruption of oil supply). I would hope it doesn't get used otherwise. Although I agree with the occasional use of such a 'threat' to put some political pressure on OPEC. Meanwhile, we should be doing mucho arm twisting of our big oil supply 'ally' (Saudia Arabia) to open up the oil flow - now.... Oil prices are now about $32.56 a barrel........

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (14425)	6/14/2000 9:09:00 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Mr. GJ: Last Sunday in response to a caller in the last half of the second hour, Bob raised the possibility that Foreign investors might increasingly redeem their treasury securities as they lose confidence in the U.S. economy during the expected slowdown. Do you see this scenario as a credible risk that might upset your expected soft landing scenario? Moreover, how do you see the impact on inflation of a FED, fearful of oncoming recession, lowering rates to soften the economic landing? Does this whole process of reigning in the economy remind you of white water rafting down a turbulent river ? P

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (14425)	6/14/2000 9:36:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

MGJ: Re: "If the economy was to go into a hard landing it is very possible Greenspan would decrease rates to prevent the US economy from going into a recession." If the economy was "in a hard landing" a recession would be virtually assured. You may be assuming that he picks up on the slowdown before it is too late. Not a sure thing, especially if inflation remains above trend then he might go overboard. Check out big Fed. hawks -- they are talking about the possible need for below trend growth to quash in inflation. In any event, bonds are a no-brainer. You win in a soft landing; you win more in a hard landing; and, in either case, you collect interest while you wait. Give me Naz 5,000 and S & P 1555 and I will be buying bonds like a crazy stiff on a decline in price. Give me some big inflation spike and I will do the same. The Greeenman will always win in the end. I love interest rate risk; I can live without equity risk except for trading. Nice post.