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To: Gus who wrote (5563)	6/14/2000 3:18:00 PM
From: ehopper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Seems to ME it is obvious and I admit I have been popping in and out of this forum however every time I pop back in it appears (and forgive me for skimming over the posts since I am at work) that your conclusions (and perhaps I am simplifying things but bear with me) about the EFFECT OF PARTS SHORTAGES ON TECHNOLOGY ROLL OUT can be summarized as: 1)Parts manufacturers will charge more money for parts due to the shortage and hence manufacturer's will choose to place these higher priced components in a more efficient technology hence CDMA. 2) Hence CDMA volumes will increase while "less efficient" technologies volumes will decrease to make the most efficient use of a set number of parts common to the technologies that are available to any given manufacturer. Hence CDMA benefits. Now if I am wrong about items 1 and 2 above then ignore the following: Item 1,2 are only valid , IMHO in a situation of prolonged shortages beyond the effective high volume life cycle of current and soon to be released products. However I would argue that since parts shortages are cyclical and usually short term (1-2 quarters), and since manufacturer's forecasts have relatively firm production forecasting (1 year in advance typically) . Mobile phone manufacturers will not be making a switch to a more "efficient" technology like CDMA since their production volume is already locked in past the shortage period. Hence no technology benefits from a cyclyical shortage. The sign that a company is shifting production drastically is such a short time frame would indicate that they have not done their homework. Regards